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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: May 21, 2026


Quebec sovereignty vote projection 57% 66% 61% ± 4% 26% 34% 30% ± 4% 6% 11% 9% ± 3% Quebec Sovereignty projection | May 21, 2026
Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Distribution of undecideds 61% 9% 30% Before distribution 67% 33% Proportional distribution 66% 34% Half & half 67% 33% Two thirds to No camp 64% 36% Two thirds to Yes camp Quebec Sovereignty Projection | May 21, 2026

All Quebec sovereignty polls are available on this page.

Latest update: May 21, 2026
25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 62.5% 67% ± 5% Max. 72.1% Min. 28.2% 33% ± 5% Max. 37.2% Probabilities % No Yes Quebec Sovereigny Vote Projection May 21, 2026