logo
Quebec
Quebec flag

338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: March 5, 2026


Quebec sovereignty vote projection 59% 68% 64% ± 4% 24% 32% 28% ± 4% 6% 11% 9% ± 3% Quebec Sovereignty projection | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Distribution of undecideds 64% 9% 28% Before distribution 70% 30% Proportional distribution 68% 32% Half & half 69% 31% Two thirds to No camp 67% 33% Two thirds to Yes camp Quebec Sovereignty Projection | March 5, 2026

All Quebec sovereignty polls are available on this page.

Latest update: March 5, 2026
25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 65.0% 70% ± 5% Max. 74.5% Min. 25.8% 30% ± 4% Max. 34.7% Probabilities % No Yes Quebec Sovereigny Vote Projection March 5, 2026