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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: March 5, 2026



Sovereignty projection | Male voters 54% 66% 60% ± 6% 26% 38% 32% ± 6% 5% 12% 8% ± 3% 338Canada Quebec | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Distribution of undecideds | Male voters 60% 8% 32% Before distribution 65% 35% Proportional distribution 64% 36% Half & half 65% 35% Two thirds to No camp 63% 37% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | March 5, 2026

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