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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: May 21, 2026



Sovereignty projection | Male voters 52% 65% 59% ± 6% 27% 39% 33% ± 6% 5% 12% 8% ± 4% 338Canada Quebec | May 21, 2026
Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Distribution of undecideds | Male voters 59% 8% 33% Before distribution 64% 36% Proportional distribution 63% 37% Half & half 64% 36% Two thirds to No camp 61% 39% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | May 21, 2026

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