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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: May 21, 2026



Sovereignty projection | 18-34 years old 48% 66% 57% ± 9% 26% 43% 34% ± 9% 3% 13% 8% ± 5% 338Canada Quebec | May 21, 2026
Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Distribution of undecideds | 18-34 years old 57% 8% 34% Before distribution 62% 38% Proportional distribution 61% 39% Half & half 63% 37% Two thirds to No camp 60% 40% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | May 21, 2026

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