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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: May 21, 2026



Sovereignty projection | Francophone voters 48% 59% 54% ± 5% 31% 41% 36% ± 5% 7% 14% 10% ± 3% 338Canada Quebec | May 21, 2026
Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Distribution of undecideds | Francophone voters 54% 10% 36% Before distribution 60% 40% Proportional distribution 59% 41% Half & half 60% 40% Two thirds to No camp 57% 43% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | May 21, 2026

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