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338Canada Projection: Quebec Sovereignty

Latest update: March 5, 2026



Sovereignty projection | Montreal CMA 59% 71% 65% ± 6% 18% 29% 24% ± 5% 7% 15% 11% ± 4% 338Canada Quebec | March 5, 2026
Methodology note. Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Distribution of undecideds | Montreal CMA 65% 11% 24% Before distribution 73% 27% Proportional distribution 71% 29% Half & half 73% 27% Two thirds to No camp 69% 31% Two thirds to Yes camp 338Canada Quebec | March 5, 2026

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