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About this Ontario poll from Abacus Data


This Ontario poll was fielded by Abacus Data in February 2026, with a middle field date of February 8, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,001 Ontario respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (January 2026), the Ontario PC Party loses four points from 48% to 44%, the Ontario Liberal Party climbs eight points from 22% to 30%, and the Ontario NDP loses three points from 19% to 16% (variation similar to moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.

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Ontario 44% ▼4 PC 30% ▲8 OLP 16% ▼3 NDP 6% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com


Breakdown by region

Toronto 42% ▲14 OLP 33% ▼14 PC 15% ▼1 NDP 7% ▲3 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
GTHA 54% ▲5 PC 26% ▲3 OLP 13% ▼6 NDP 4% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
Southwestern Ontario 39% ▼9 PC 31% ▲12 OLP 18% NDP 9% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com

Eastern Ontario 43% ▼5 PC 29% ▲10 OLP 21% ▼1 NDP 3% ▼4 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com


Breakdown by gender

Female voters 42% ▼1 PC 35% ▲11 OLP 13% ▼9 NDP 6% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
Male voters 46% ▼7 PC 26% ▲5 OLP 19% ▲3 NDP 6% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com


Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 52% ▲31 OLP 19% ▼25 PC 18% ▲1 NDP 9% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
30-44 years old 42% ▼8 PC 32% ▲13 OLP 17% ▼3 NDP 6% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com

45-59 years old 58% ▲8 PC 16% ▼6 NDP 16% ▼5 OLP 4% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
60+ years old 51% ▲5 PC 25% ▼2 OLP 14% ▼2 NDP 5% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com


Preferred Premier 39% Ford 29% ▲5 Don't know 18% ▲2 Stiles 7% ▼10 Fraser 4% Schreiner Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
Abacus Data Preferred Premier tracker 39% 18% 29%2026-02-08 17% 39% 16% 24%2026-01-11 17% 45% 15% 18%2025-11-06 18% 46% 12% 19%2025-10-12 18% 46% 12% 18%2025-09-15 18% 48% 12% 18%2025-08-17 20% 46% 12% 17%2025-07-13 25% 40% 15% 14%2025-02-25 ◻︎Fraser ◻︎Ford ◻︎Stiles ◻︎Schreiner ◻︎Don't know 

Government approval 40% ▲5 Disapprove 35% ▼6 Approve 25% ▲1 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
Abacus Data Government approval tracker 35% 40%2026-02-08 41% 35%2026-01-11 42% 34%2025-11-06 42% 33%2025-10-12 47% 31%2025-09-15 48% 30%2025-08-17 44% 32%2025-07-13 44% 31%2025-06-04 41% 42%2025-02-25 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove


Impression / favourability of Doug Ford 42% ▲6 Negative / unfavourable 37% ▼3 Positive / favourable 21% ▼3 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Doug Ford 37% 42%2026-02-08 40% 36%2026-01-11 42% 37%2025-11-06 43% 35%2025-10-12 46% 33%2025-09-15 46% 32%2025-08-17 46% 33%2025-07-13 44% 33%2025-06-04 41% 40%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable

Impression / favourability of Marit Stiles 42% ▼6 Neutral / Unsure 29% ▲6 Negative / unfavourable 29% Positive / favourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Marit Stiles 29% 29%2026-02-08 29% 23%2026-01-11 31% 27%2025-11-06 26% 27%2025-10-12 28% 27%2025-09-15 27% 27%2025-08-17 28% 24%2025-07-13 28% 25%2025-06-04 33% 24%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable

Impression / favourability of Mike Schreiner 52% Neutral / Unsure 27% Negative / unfavourable 21% Positive / favourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-02-08 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Mike Schreiner 21% 27%2026-02-08 19% 21%2025-10-12 23% 24%2025-09-15 23% 23%2025-08-17 25% 21%2025-07-13 24% 23%2025-06-04 24% 21%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable


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