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New Democratic Party

Latest update: April 29, 2026
LeaderMarit Stiles
Popular vote in 202518.6%
Current vote projection18.7% ± 2.5%
Current number of MPP27
Current seat projection28 [25-29]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 29, 2026 35 30 25 20 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% Vote efficiency | NDP 338Canada Ontario 0.8 seat/% [25-29] 19% ± 3% 2018 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | April 29, 2026

13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 16.1% 2025 18.6% 18.7% ± 2.5% Max. 21.2% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | April 29, 2026

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 25 2025 27 seats 28 Max. 29 Probabilities % NDP

List of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Peter Tabuns
N Safe NDP
2.
Catherine Mckenney
N Safe NDP
3.
Marit Stiles
N Safe NDP
4.
Wayne J. Gates
N Safe NDP
5.
Catherine Fife
N Safe NDP
6.
Chandra Pasma
N Safe NDP
7.
Peggy Sattler
N Safe NDP
8.
Terence Kernaghan
N Safe NDP
9.
Robin Lennox
N Safe NDP
10.
France Gélinas
N Safe NDP
11.
Teresa Armstrong
N Safe NDP
12.
Lisa Gretzky
N Safe NDP
13.
Sol Mamakwa
N Safe NDP
14. N Likely NDP
15.
Jennie Stevens
N Likely NDP
16.
Jamie West
N Likely NDP
17.
Jennifer French
N Likely NDP
18. N Likely NDP
19. N Likely NDP
20.
Jessica Bell
N Likely NDP
21.
Jeff Burch
N Likely NDP
22.
John Vanthof
N Likely NDP
23.
Alexa Gilmour
N Likely NDP
24.
Chris Glover
N Likely NDP
25.
Kristyn Wong-Tam
N Leaning NDP
26.
Guy Bourgouin
N Leaning NDP
27.
Chris Scott [Elected as PC]
I Toss up PC/NDP
28. N Toss up OLP/PC/NDP
29.
Bill Rosenberg
PC Likely PCPO
30.
Andrew Dowie
PC Likely PCPO
31.
Monica Ciriello
PC Leaning OLP
32.
Stephanie Smyth
L Likely OLP
33.
Kevin Holland
PC Likely PCPO
34.
Mohamed Firin
PC Leaning OLP
35.
Vic Fedeli
PC Safe PCPO