Ontario Liberal Party

Latest update: April 29, 2026

Leader	John Fraser (interim)
Popular vote in 2025	29.9%
Current vote projection	34.6% ± 4.1%
Current number of MPP	14
Current seat projection	36 [22-52]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | April 29, 2026

Seat projection | April 29, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party

	Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
1.	Kingston and the Islands Ted Hsu	L	Safe OLP
2.	Don Valley West Stephanie Bowman	L	Safe OLP
3.	Don Valley East Adil Shamji	L	Safe OLP
4.	Orléans Stephen Blais	L	Safe OLP
5.	Ottawa South John Fraser	L	Safe OLP
6.	Beaches—East York Mary-Margaret Mcmahon	L	Safe OLP
7.	Ottawa—Vanier Lucille Collard	L	Safe OLP
8.	Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Safe OLP
9.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Stephanie Smyth	L	Likely OLP
10.	Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Likely OLP
11.	Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Likely OLP
12.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Likely OLP
13.	Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Likely OLP
14.	Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Likely OLP
15.	Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Likely OLP
16.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Likely OLP
17.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Leaning OLP
18.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Leaning OLP
19.	Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Leaning OLP
20.	Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Leaning OLP
21.	Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
22.	Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Leaning OLP
23.	York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Leaning OLP
24.	Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Leaning OLP
25.	Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Leaning OLP
26.	Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Leaning OLP
27.	Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Leaning OLP
28.	Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
29.	Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Leaning OLP
30.	Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
31.	Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
32.	Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
33.	Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
34.	Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
35.	Carleton George Darouze	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
36.	Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
37.	Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
38.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Neil Lumsden	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
39.	Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
40.	Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
41.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
42.	Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
43.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
44.	Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
45.	Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
46.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Leaning PCPO
47.	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Leaning PCPO
48.	Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Leaning PCPO
49.	Toronto Centre Kristyn Wong-Tam	N	Leaning NDP
50.	Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Leaning PCPO
51.	Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Toss up OLP/PC/NDP
52.	Northumberland—Peterborough South David Piccini	PC	Leaning PCPO
53.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Leaning PCPO
54.	Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Likely PCPO
55.	Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Likely PCPO
56.	Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Likely PCPO
57.	Simcoe—Grey Brian Saunderson	PC	Likely PCPO
58.	Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Likely PCPO
59.	Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
60.	York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Likely PCPO
61.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Likely PCPO
62.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Likely PCPO
63.	Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Likely PCPO
64.	Spadina—Fort York Chris Glover	N	Likely NDP
65.	Huron—Bruce Lisa Thompson	PC	Likely PCPO
66.	Thunder Bay—Atikokan Kevin Holland	PC	Likely PCPO
67.	Durham Todd Mccarthy	PC	Likely PCPO
68.	Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Likely PCPO
69.	Parkdale—High Park Alexa Gilmour	N	Likely NDP
70.	Simcoe North Jill Dunlop	PC	Likely PCPO
71.	University—Rosedale Jessica Bell	N	Likely NDP
72.	Brampton North Graham Mcgregor	PC	Likely PCPO
73.	Niagara West Sam Oosterhoff	PC	Likely PCPO
74.	Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Steve Clark	PC	Likely PCPO
75.	Barrie—Innisfil Andrea Khanjin	PC	Likely PCPO
76.	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Stephen Pinsonneault	PC	Likely PCPO
77.	Markham—Unionville Billy Pang	PC	Likely PCPO
78.	Dufferin—Caledon Sylvia Jones	PC	Likely PCPO
79.	Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum	N	Likely NDP
80.	Elgin—Middlesex—London Rob Flack	PC	Safe PCPO
81.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Laurie Scott	PC	Safe PCPO
82.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Sandy Shaw	N	Likely NDP
83.	Thornhill Laura Smith	PC	Safe PCPO
84.	Brantford—Brant Will Bouma	PC	Safe PCPO
85.	Oxford Ernie Hardeman	PC	Safe PCPO
86.	Etobicoke North Doug Ford	PC	Safe PCPO
87.	Hamilton Centre Robin Lennox	N	Safe NDP
88.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Lise Vaugeois	N	Likely NDP
89.	Algoma—Manitoulin Bill Rosenberg	PC	Likely PCPO
90.	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Billy Denault	PC	Safe PCPO
91.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Tibollo	PC	Safe PCPO
92.	York—Simcoe Caroline Mulroney	PC	Safe PCPO
93.	Sarnia—Lambton Bob Bailey	PC	Safe PCPO

Ontario Liberal Party

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Vote projection | April 29, 2026

Seat projection | April 29, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party