Progressive Conservative Party

Latest update: April 29, 2026

Leader	Doug Ford
Popular vote in 2025	43.0%
Current vote projection	38.3% ± 4.2%
Current number of MPP	79
Current seat projection	57 [42-72]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | April 29, 2026

Seat projection | April 29, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party

	Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
1.	Timmins George Pirie	PC	Safe PCPO
2.	King—Vaughan Stephen Lecce	PC	Safe PCPO
3.	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Nolan Quinn	PC	Safe PCPO
4.	Kenora—Rainy River Greg Rickford	PC	Safe PCPO
5.	Essex Anthony Leardi	PC	Safe PCPO
6.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Trevor Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
7.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Tibollo	PC	Safe PCPO
8.	York—Simcoe Caroline Mulroney	PC	Safe PCPO
9.	Nipissing Vic Fedeli	PC	Safe PCPO
10.	Sarnia—Lambton Bob Bailey	PC	Safe PCPO
11.	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Billy Denault	PC	Safe PCPO
12.	Etobicoke North Doug Ford	PC	Safe PCPO
13.	Oxford Ernie Hardeman	PC	Safe PCPO
14.	Brantford—Brant Will Bouma	PC	Safe PCPO
15.	Thornhill Laura Smith	PC	Safe PCPO
16.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Laurie Scott	PC	Safe PCPO
17.	Elgin—Middlesex—London Rob Flack	PC	Safe PCPO
18.	Dufferin—Caledon Sylvia Jones	PC	Likely PCPO
19.	Markham—Unionville Billy Pang	PC	Likely PCPO
20.	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Stephen Pinsonneault	PC	Likely PCPO
21.	Barrie—Innisfil Andrea Khanjin	PC	Likely PCPO
22.	Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Steve Clark	PC	Likely PCPO
23.	Niagara West Sam Oosterhoff	PC	Likely PCPO
24.	Brampton North Graham Mcgregor	PC	Likely PCPO
25.	Windsor—Tecumseh Andrew Dowie	PC	Likely PCPO
26.	Simcoe North Jill Dunlop	PC	Likely PCPO
27.	Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Likely PCPO
28.	Durham Todd Mccarthy	PC	Likely PCPO
29.	Thunder Bay—Atikokan Kevin Holland	PC	Likely PCPO
30.	Huron—Bruce Lisa Thompson	PC	Likely PCPO
31.	Algoma—Manitoulin Bill Rosenberg	PC	Likely PCPO
32.	Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Likely PCPO
33.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Likely PCPO
34.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Likely PCPO
35.	York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Likely PCPO
36.	Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
37.	Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Likely PCPO
38.	Simcoe—Grey Brian Saunderson	PC	Likely PCPO
39.	Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Likely PCPO
40.	Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Likely PCPO
41.	Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Likely PCPO
42.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Leaning PCPO
43.	Northumberland—Peterborough South David Piccini	PC	Leaning PCPO
44.	Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Leaning PCPO
45.	Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Leaning PCPO
46.	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Leaning PCPO
47.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Leaning PCPO
48.	Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
49.	Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
50.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
51.	Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
52.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
53.	Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
54.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Graydon Smith	PC	Toss up PC/GPO
55.	Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
56.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Neil Lumsden	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
57.	Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
58.	Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
59.	Carleton George Darouze	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
60.	Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
61.	Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
62.	Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
63.	Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
64.	Sault Ste. Marie Chris Scott [Elected as PC]	I	Toss up PC/NDP
65.	Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
66.	Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Leaning OLP
67.	Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
68.	Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Leaning OLP
69.	Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Toss up OLP/PC/NDP
70.	Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Leaning OLP
71.	Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Leaning OLP
72.	Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Leaning OLP
73.	Mushkegowuk—James Bay Guy Bourgouin	N	Leaning NDP
74.	York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Leaning OLP
75.	Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Leaning OLP
76.	Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
77.	Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Leaning OLP
78.	Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Leaning OLP
79.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Leaning OLP
80.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Leaning OLP
81.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Likely OLP
82.	Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Likely OLP
83.	Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Likely OLP
84.	Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Likely OLP
85.	Timiskaming—Cochrane John Vanthof	N	Likely NDP
86.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Likely OLP
87.	Niagara Centre Jeff Burch	N	Likely NDP
88.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Lise Vaugeois	N	Likely NDP
89.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Sandy Shaw	N	Likely NDP
90.	Oshawa Jennifer French	N	Likely NDP
91.	Sudbury Jamie West	N	Likely NDP
92.	St. Catharines Jennie Stevens	N	Likely NDP
93.	Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Likely OLP
94.	Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Likely OLP
95.	Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum	N	Likely NDP
96.	Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Safe OLP
97.	Kiiwetinoong Sol Mamakwa	N	Safe NDP
98.	Windsor West Lisa Gretzky	N	Safe NDP
99.	Nickel Belt France Gélinas	N	Safe NDP
100.	London—Fanshawe Teresa Armstrong	N	Safe NDP
101.	London North Centre Terence Kernaghan	N	Safe NDP
102.	London West Peggy Sattler	N	Safe NDP
103.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Stephanie Smyth	L	Likely OLP
104.	Haldimand—Norfolk Bobbi Ann Brady	I	IND safe

Progressive Conservative Party

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Vote projection | April 29, 2026

Seat projection | April 29, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party