Progressive Conservative Party

Latest update: August 7, 2026

Leader	Doug Ford
Popular vote in 2025	43.0%
Current vote projection	39.1% ± 4.7%
Current number of MPP	79
Current seat projection	60 [45-76]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | August 7, 2026

Seat projection | August 7, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party

	Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
1.	Timmins George Pirie	PC	Safe PCPO
2.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Tibollo	PC	Safe PCPO
3.	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Nolan Quinn	PC	Safe PCPO
4.	Kenora—Rainy River Greg Rickford	PC	Safe PCPO
5.	Essex Anthony Leardi	PC	Safe PCPO
6.	Nipissing Vic Fedeli	PC	Safe PCPO
7.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Trevor Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
8.	Sarnia—Lambton Bob Bailey	PC	Safe PCPO
9.	King—Vaughan Stephen Lecce	PC	Safe PCPO
10.	York—Simcoe Caroline Mulroney	PC	Safe PCPO
11.	Oxford Ernie Hardeman	PC	Safe PCPO
12.	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Billy Denault	PC	Safe PCPO
13.	Thornhill Laura Smith	PC	Safe PCPO
14.	Brantford—Brant Will Bouma	PC	Safe PCPO
15.	Elgin—Middlesex—London Rob Flack	PC	Safe PCPO
16.	Etobicoke North Doug Ford	PC	Safe PCPO
17.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Laurie Scott	PC	Safe PCPO
18.	Dufferin—Caledon Sylvia Jones	PC	Likely PCPO
19.	Barrie—Innisfil Andrea Khanjin	PC	Likely PCPO
20.	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Stephen Pinsonneault	PC	Likely PCPO
21.	Markham—Unionville Billy Pang	PC	Likely PCPO
22.	Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Steve Clark	PC	Likely PCPO
23.	Niagara West Sam Oosterhoff	PC	Likely PCPO
24.	Brampton North Graham Mcgregor	PC	Likely PCPO
25.	Simcoe North Jill Dunlop	PC	Likely PCPO
26.	Windsor—Tecumseh Andrew Dowie	PC	Likely PCPO
27.	Huron—Bruce Lisa Thompson	PC	Likely PCPO
28.	York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Likely PCPO
29.	Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Likely PCPO
30.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Likely PCPO
31.	Durham Todd Mccarthy	PC	Likely PCPO
32.	Thunder Bay—Atikokan Kevin Holland	PC	Likely PCPO
33.	Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
34.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Likely PCPO
35.	Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Likely PCPO
36.	Simcoe—Grey Brian Saunderson	PC	Likely PCPO
37.	Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Likely PCPO
38.	Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Likely PCPO
39.	Algoma—Manitoulin Bill Rosenberg	PC	Likely PCPO
40.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Likely PCPO
41.	Northumberland—Peterborough South David Piccini	PC	Likely PCPO
42.	Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Likely PCPO
43.	Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Likely PCPO
44.	Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Likely PCPO
45.	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Leaning PCPO
46.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Leaning PCPO
47.	Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Leaning PCPO
48.	Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Leaning PCPO
49.	Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Leaning PCPO
50.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Leaning PCPO
51.	Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Leaning PCPO
52.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Leaning PCPO
53.	Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
54.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Neil Lumsden	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
55.	Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
56.	Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
57.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Graydon Smith	PC	Toss up PC/GPO
58.	Carleton George Darouze	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
59.	Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
60.	Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
61.	Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
62.	Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
63.	Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
64.	Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
65.	Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
66.	Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
67.	Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
68.	Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
69.	Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
70.	York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Leaning OLP
71.	Sault Ste. Marie Chris Scott [Elected as PC]	I	Leaning NDP
72.	Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Leaning OLP
73.	Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Leaning OLP
74.	Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Toss up PC/NDP
75.	Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Leaning OLP
76.	Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Leaning OLP
77.	Mushkegowuk—James Bay Guy Bourgouin	N	Leaning NDP
78.	Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Leaning OLP
79.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Leaning OLP
80.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Leaning OLP
81.	Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Likely OLP
82.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Likely OLP
83.	Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Likely OLP
84.	Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Likely OLP
85.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Likely OLP
86.	Niagara Centre Jeff Burch	N	Likely NDP
87.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Sandy Shaw	N	Likely NDP
88.	Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Likely OLP
89.	Timiskaming—Cochrane John Vanthof	N	Likely NDP
90.	Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Likely OLP
91.	St. Catharines Jennie Stevens	N	Likely NDP
92.	Oshawa Jennifer French	N	Likely NDP
93.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Lise Vaugeois	N	Likely NDP
94.	Sudbury Jamie West	N	Likely NDP
95.	Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum	N	Likely NDP
96.	Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Likely OLP
97.	Windsor West Lisa Gretzky	N	Likely NDP
98.	London—Fanshawe Teresa Armstrong	N	Safe NDP
99.	Nickel Belt France Gélinas	N	Safe NDP
100.	London West Peggy Sattler	N	Safe NDP
101.	Haldimand—Norfolk Bobbi Ann Brady	I	IND safe
102.	London North Centre Terence Kernaghan	N	Safe NDP
103.	Kiiwetinoong Sol Mamakwa	N	Safe NDP
104.	Don Valley East Adil Shamji	L	Safe OLP
105.	Don Valley West Stephanie Bowman	L	Safe OLP
106.	Niagara Falls Wayne J. Gates	N	Safe NDP
107.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Stephanie Smyth	L	Likely OLP

Progressive Conservative Party

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Vote projection | August 7, 2026

Seat projection | August 7, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party