Progressive Conservative Party

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Leader	Doug Ford
Popular vote in 2025	43.0%
Current vote projection	44.2% ± 4.3%
Current number of MPP	79
Current seat projection	81 [70-89]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | February 18, 2026

Seat projection | February 18, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party

	Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
1.	Timmins George Pirie	PC	Safe PCPO
2.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Tibollo	PC	Safe PCPO
3.	King—Vaughan Stephen Lecce	PC	Safe PCPO
4.	Thornhill Laura Smith	PC	Safe PCPO
5.	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Nolan Quinn	PC	Safe PCPO
6.	Markham—Unionville Billy Pang	PC	Safe PCPO
7.	Kenora—Rainy River Greg Rickford	PC	Safe PCPO
8.	York—Simcoe Caroline Mulroney	PC	Safe PCPO
9.	Etobicoke North Doug Ford	PC	Safe PCPO
10.	Brampton North Graham Mcgregor	PC	Safe PCPO
11.	Elgin—Middlesex—London Rob Flack	PC	Safe PCPO
12.	Essex Anthony Leardi	PC	Safe PCPO
13.	Oxford Ernie Hardeman	PC	Safe PCPO
14.	Nipissing Vic Fedeli	PC	Safe PCPO
15.	Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Steve Clark	PC	Safe PCPO
16.	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Billy Denault	PC	Safe PCPO
17.	Simcoe—Grey Brian Saunderson	PC	Safe PCPO
18.	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Stephen Pinsonneault	PC	Safe PCPO
19.	Barrie—Innisfil Andrea Khanjin	PC	Safe PCPO
20.	Dufferin—Caledon Sylvia Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
21.	Northumberland—Peterborough South David Piccini	PC	Safe PCPO
22.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Trevor Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
23.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Laurie Scott	PC	Safe PCPO
24.	Simcoe North Jill Dunlop	PC	Safe PCPO
25.	Sarnia—Lambton Bob Bailey	PC	Safe PCPO
26.	Durham Todd Mccarthy	PC	Safe PCPO
27.	Niagara West Sam Oosterhoff	PC	Safe PCPO
28.	Huron—Bruce Lisa Thompson	PC	Safe PCPO
29.	Brantford—Brant Will Bouma	PC	Safe PCPO
30.	Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Safe PCPO
31.	Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Safe PCPO
32.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Safe PCPO
33.	Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Safe PCPO
34.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Safe PCPO
35.	Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Safe PCPO
36.	Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Safe PCPO
37.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Safe PCPO
38.	Thunder Bay—Atikokan Kevin Holland	PC	Safe PCPO
39.	Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Safe PCPO
40.	Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Safe PCPO
41.	Windsor—Tecumseh Andrew Dowie	PC	Safe PCPO
42.	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Safe PCPO
43.	York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Safe PCPO
44.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Likely PCPO
45.	Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Likely PCPO
46.	Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
47.	Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Likely PCPO
48.	Algoma—Manitoulin Bill Rosenberg	PC	Likely PCPO
49.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Likely PCPO
50.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Likely PCPO
51.	Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Likely PCPO
52.	Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Likely PCPO
53.	Carleton George Darouze	PC	Likely PCPO
54.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Neil Lumsden	PC	Likely PCPO
55.	Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Likely PCPO
56.	Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Likely PCPO
57.	Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Likely PCPO
58.	Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Likely PCPO
59.	Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Likely PCPO
60.	Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Likely PCPO
61.	Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Likely PCPO
62.	Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Likely PCPO
63.	Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Likely PCPO
64.	Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Likely PCPO
65.	Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Likely PCPO
66.	Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Likely PCPO
67.	Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Likely PCPO
68.	Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Leaning PCPO
69.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Graydon Smith	PC	Leaning PCPO
70.	Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Leaning PCPO
71.	Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Leaning PCPO
72.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Leaning PCPO
73.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Leaning PCPO
74.	Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Leaning PCPO
75.	Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Leaning PCPO
76.	Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Leaning PCPO
77.	Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
78.	Sault Ste. Marie Chris Scott [Elected as PC]	I	Toss up PC/NDP
79.	York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
80.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
81.	Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Toss up OLP/PC
82.	Mushkegowuk—James Bay Guy Bourgouin	N	Toss up PC/NDP
83.	Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Toss up PC/NDP
84.	Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Toss up OLP/PC
85.	Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Leaning OLP
86.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Leaning OLP
87.	Oshawa Jennifer French	N	Leaning NDP
88.	Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Leaning OLP
89.	Niagara Centre Jeff Burch	N	Leaning NDP
90.	Timiskaming—Cochrane John Vanthof	N	Leaning NDP
91.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Sandy Shaw	N	Leaning NDP
92.	Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Likely OLP
93.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Lise Vaugeois	N	Likely NDP
94.	Sudbury Jamie West	N	Likely NDP
95.	St. Catharines Jennie Stevens	N	Likely NDP
96.	Windsor West Lisa Gretzky	N	Likely NDP
97.	Nickel Belt France Gélinas	N	Likely NDP
98.	Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum	N	Likely NDP
99.	London—Fanshawe Teresa Armstrong	N	Likely NDP
100.	Orléans Stephen Blais	L	Likely OLP
101.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Stephanie Smyth	L	Likely OLP
102.	London West Peggy Sattler	N	Likely NDP
103.	London North Centre Terence Kernaghan	N	Likely NDP
104.	Don Valley West Stephanie Bowman	L	Likely OLP
105.	Kiiwetinoong Sol Mamakwa	N	Likely NDP
106.	Don Valley East Adil Shamji	L	Likely OLP
107.	Haldimand—Norfolk Bobbi Ann Brady	I	IND safe
108.	Niagara Falls Wayne J. Gates	N	Safe NDP
109.	Ottawa West—Nepean Chandra Pasma	N	Safe NDP
110.	Kitchener Centre Aislinn Clancy	G	Safe GPO

Progressive Conservative Party

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Vote projection | February 18, 2026

Seat projection | February 18, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party