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About this Ontario poll from Abacus Data


This Ontario poll was fielded by Abacus Data in January 2026, with a middle field date of January 11, 2026. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,006 Ontario respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (November 2025), the Ontario PC Party loses three points from 51% to 48% (variation similar to moe), the Ontario Liberal Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), and the Ontario NDP remains stable at 19%.

You can read more information on this poll here.

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Ontario 48% ▼3 PC 22% ▼1 OLP 19% NDP 6% ▲3 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com


Breakdown by region

Toronto 47% ▲1 PC 28% ▼1 OLP 16% ▼4 NDP 4% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com
GTHA 49% ▼5 PC 23% ▼1 OLP 19% ▲3 NDP 5% ▲3 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com
Southwestern Ontario 48% ▼7 PC 19% ▲2 OLP 18% ▼1 NDP 8% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com

Eastern Ontario 48% ▲8 PC 22% NDP 19% ▼11 OLP 7% ▲4 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com


Breakdown by gender

Female voters 43% ▼4 PC 24% ▼1 OLP 22% ▲1 NDP 5% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com
Male voters 53% ▼1 PC 21% OLP 16% ▼1 NDP 6% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com


Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 44% PC 21% ▼2 OLP 17% ▼7 NDP 11% ▲5 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com
30-44 years old 50% PC 20% ▲2 NDP 19% ▼5 OLP 5% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com

45-59 years old 50% ▼4 PC 22% ▲5 NDP 21% ▲1 OLP 3% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com
60+ years old 46% ▼6 PC 27% ▲2 OLP 16% ▼2 NDP 6% ▲4 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com


Preferred Premier 39% ▼6 Ford 24% ▲6 Don't know 17% Crombie 16% ▲1 Stiles 4% ▼1 Schreiner Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com
Abacus Data Preferred Premier tracker 17% 39% 16% 24%2026-01-11 17% 45% 15% 18%2025-11-06 18% 46% 12% 19%2025-10-12 18% 46% 12% 18%2025-09-15 18% 48% 12% 18%2025-08-17 20% 46% 12% 17%2025-07-13 25% 40% 15% 14%2025-02-25 ◻︎Crombie ◻︎Ford ◻︎Stiles ◻︎Schreiner ◻︎Don't know 

Government approval 41% ▼1 Approve 35% ▲1 Disapprove 24% Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com
Abacus Data Government approval tracker 41% 35%2026-01-11 42% 34%2025-11-06 42% 33%2025-10-12 47% 31%2025-09-15 48% 30%2025-08-17 44% 32%2025-07-13 44% 31%2025-06-04 41% 42%2025-02-25 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove


Impression / favourability of Doug Ford 40% ▼2 Positive / favourable 36% ▼1 Negative / unfavourable 24% ▲3 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Doug Ford 40% 36%2026-01-11 42% 37%2025-11-06 43% 35%2025-10-12 46% 33%2025-09-15 46% 32%2025-08-17 46% 33%2025-07-13 44% 33%2025-06-04 41% 40%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable

Impression / favourability of Marit Stiles 48% ▲6 Neutral / Unsure 29% ▼2 Positive / favourable 23% ▼4 Negative / unfavourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2026-01-11 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Marit Stiles 29% 23%2026-01-11 31% 27%2025-11-06 26% 27%2025-10-12 28% 27%2025-09-15 27% 27%2025-08-17 28% 24%2025-07-13 28% 25%2025-06-04 33% 24%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable


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