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Ontario

About this Ontario poll from Abacus Data


This Ontario poll was fielded by Abacus Data in October 2025, with a middle field date of October 12, 2025. The poll collected data from a total sample of n=1,000 Ontario respondents via an online panel.

The margin of error [moe] for this poll is estimated at ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20 (for entire sample only) around the 50%-mark.

If we compare these national numbers with the previous poll from Abacus Data (September 2025), the Ontario PC Party is down one point (variation smaller than moe), the Ontario Liberal Party is up one point (variation smaller than moe), and the Ontario NDP climbs three points from 12% to 15% (variation similar to moe).

You can read more information on this poll here.

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Ontario 51% ▼1 PC 25% ▲1 OLP 15% ▲3 NDP 5% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com


Breakdown by region

Toronto 58% ▲6 PC 26% ▼2 OLP 12% ▲4 NDP 1% ▼5 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
GTHA 48% ▼1 PC 32% ▲5 OLP 11% ▼2 NDP 7% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Southwestern Ontario 53% ▼7 PC 17% ▼1 OLP 16% ▲6 NDP 7% GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com

Eastern Ontario 53% ▲3 PC 22% ▼4 OLP 16% ▲4 NDP 5% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com


Breakdown by gender

Female voters 49% PC 25% ▼1 OLP 17% ▲2 NDP 6% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Male voters 54% ▼1 PC 24% ▲1 OLP 13% ▲4 NDP 5% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com


Breakdown by age group

18-29 years old 40% ▲1 PC 31% ▼4 OLP 15% ▲1 NDP 9% ▲2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
30-44 years old 51% ▲2 PC 25% ▼4 OLP 14% ▲4 NDP 5% ▼2 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com

45-59 years old 58% ▼4 PC 20% ▲6 OLP 13% ▲2 NDP 6% ▼1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
60+ years old 52% ▼3 PC 25% ▲2 OLP 16% ▲3 NDP 4% ▲1 GPO Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com


Preferred Premier 46% Ford 19% ▲1 Don't know 18% Crombie 12% Stiles 4% ▼2 Schreiner Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Abacus Data Preferred Premier tracker 18% 46% 12% 19%2025-10-12 18% 46% 12% 18%2025-09-15 18% 48% 12% 18%2025-08-17 20% 46% 12% 17%2025-07-13 25% 40% 15% 14%2025-02-25 ◻︎Crombie ◻︎Ford ◻︎Stiles ◻︎Schreiner ◻︎Don't know 

Government approval 42% ▼5 Approve 33% ▲2 Disapprove 25% ▲3 Neutral/Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Abacus Data Government approval tracker 42% 33%2025-10-12 47% 31%2025-09-15 48% 30%2025-08-17 44% 32%2025-07-13 44% 31%2025-06-04 41% 42%2025-02-25 ◻︎Approve ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Disapprove


Impression / favourability of Doug Ford 43% ▼3 Positive / favourable 35% ▲2 Negative / unfavourable 22% ▲1 Neutral / Unsure Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Doug Ford 43% 35%2025-10-12 46% 33%2025-09-15 46% 32%2025-08-17 46% 33%2025-07-13 44% 33%2025-06-04 41% 40%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable

Impression / favourability of Marit Stiles 47% ▲2 Neutral / Unsure 27% Negative / unfavourable 26% ▼2 Positive / favourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Marit Stiles 26% 27%2025-10-12 28% 27%2025-09-15 27% 27%2025-08-17 28% 24%2025-07-13 28% 25%2025-06-04 33% 24%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable

Impression / favourability of Bonnie Crombie 40% ▲3 Neutral / Unsure 35% ▲1 Negative / unfavourable 25% ▼4 Positive / favourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Bonnie Crombie 25% 35%2025-10-12 29% 34%2025-09-15 30% 33%2025-08-17 33% 32%2025-07-13 31% 33%2025-06-04 33% 31%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable

Impression / favourability of Mike Schreiner 60% ▲7 Neutral / Unsure 21% ▼3 Negative / unfavourable 19% ▼4 Positive / favourable Abacus Data Ontario poll | 2025-10-12 338Canada.com
Impression / favourability tracker, Mike Schreiner 19% 21%2025-10-12 23% 24%2025-09-15 23% 23%2025-08-17 25% 21%2025-07-13 24% 23%2025-06-04 24% 21%2025-02-25 ◻︎Positive/favourable ◻︎Neutral/Unsure ◻︎Negative/unfavourable


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