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Parti Québécois

Latest update: May 21, 2026
LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection30.1% ± 3.6%
Current number of MNA's7
Current seat projection64 [49-72]

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…

Seat projection Popular vote projection | May 21, 2026 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 3.9 seat/% [49-72] 30% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | May 21, 2026

22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 26.5% ▼ 30.1% ± 3.6% ▼ Max. 33.7% ▼ Probabilities % PQ May 21, 2026

Seat projection | May 21, 2026

34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 49 ▼ Majority 63 seats 64 ▼ Max. 72 ▼ Probabilities % PQ May 21, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois



Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Matane-Matapédia
Pascal Bérubé
 PQ Safe PQ
2.
Joliette
François St-Louis
 CA Safe PQ
3.
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Joël Arseneau
 PQ Safe PQ
4.
Berthier
Caroline Proulx
 CA Safe PQ
5.
Labelle
Chantal Jeannotte
 CA Safe PQ
6.
Bertrand
France-Élaine Duranceau
 CA Safe PQ
7.
Rimouski
Maïté Blanchette Vézina [Elected as CAQ]
 C Safe PQ
8.
Bonaventure
Catherine Blouin
 CA Safe PQ
9.
Saint-Jérôme
Youri Chassin [Elected as CAQ]
 I Safe PQ
10.
Prévost
Sonia Bélanger
 CA Safe PQ
11.
Duplessis
Kateri Champagne Jourdain
 CA Safe PQ
12.
Chicoutimi
Marie-Karlynn Laflamme
 PQ Safe PQ
13.
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré
Kariane Bourassa
 CA Safe PQ
14.
Argenteuil
Agnès Grondin
 CA Safe PQ
15.
Gaspé
Stéphane Sainte-Croix
 CA Safe PQ
16.
René-Lévesque
Yves Montigny
 CA Safe PQ
17.
Roberval
Nancy Guillemette
 CA Safe PQ
18.
Jonquière
Yannick Gagnon
 CA Safe PQ
19.
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Chantal Rouleau
 CA Safe PQ
20.
Abitibi-Ouest
Suzanne Blais
 CA Safe PQ
21.
Marie-Victorin
Shirley Dorismond
 CA Safe PQ
22.
Camille-Laurin
Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon
 PQ Safe PQ
23.
Dubuc
François Tremblay [Elected as CAQ]
 I Safe PQ
24.
Lac-Saint-Jean
Éric Girard
 CA Safe PQ
25.
Saint-Jean
Louis Lemieux
 CA Likely PQ
26.
Arthabaska-L’Érable
Alex Boissonneault
 PQ Likely PQ
27.
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue
Daniel Bernard
 CA Likely PQ
28.
Saint-Hyacinthe
Chantal Soucy
 CA Likely PQ
29.
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata
Amélie Dionne
 CA Likely PQ
30.
Terrebonne
Catherine Gentilcore
 PQ Likely PQ
31.
Richelieu
Jean-Bernard Émond
 CA Likely PQ
32.
Maskinongé
Simon Allaire
 CA Likely PQ
33.
Laviolette-Saint-Maurice
Marie-Louise Tardif
 CA Likely PQ
34.
Masson
Mathieu Lemay
 CA Likely PQ
35.
Charlesbourg
Jonatan Julien
 CA Likely PQ
36.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Likely PQ
37.
Deux-Montagnes
Benoit Charette
 CA Likely PQ
38.
Drummond–Bois-Francs
Sébastien Schneeberger
 CA Likely PQ
39.
Johnson
André Lamontagne
 CA Likely PQ
40.
Verchères
Suzanne Roy
 CA Likely PQ
41.
Les Plaines
Lucie Lecours
 CA Likely PQ
42.
Vanier-Les Rivières
Mario Asselin
 CA Likely PQ
43.
Nicolet-Bécancour
Donald Martel
 CA Likely PQ
44.
Repentigny
Pascale Déry
 CA Likely PQ
45.
Taillon
Lionel Carmant
 CA Likely PQ
46.
Rousseau
Louis-Charles Thouin
 CA Leaning PQ
47.
Trois-Rivières
Jean Boulet
 CA Leaning PQ
48.
Abitibi-Est
Pierre Dufour [Elected as CAQ]
 I Leaning PQ
49.
Mirabel
Sylvie D’Amours
 CA Leaning PQ
50.
Côte-du-Sud
Mathieu Rivest
 CA Leaning PQ
51.
Iberville
Audrey Bogemans
 CA Leaning PQ
52.
Blainville
Mario Laframboise
 CA Leaning PQ
53.
Saint-François
Geneviève Hébert
 CA Leaning PQ
54.
Groulx
Éric Girard
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
55.
Taschereau
Étienne Grandmont
 QS Toss up PQ/QS
56.
Lévis
Bernard Drainville
 CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
57.
Chambly
Jean-François Roberge
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
58.
Vachon
Ian Lafrenière
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ
59.
Jean-Lesage
Sol Zanetti
 QS Toss up PQ/QS
60.
Beauharnois
Claude Reid
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
61.
Jean-Talon
Pascal Paradis
 PQ Toss up LIB/PQ
62.
Sherbrooke
Christine Labrie
 QS Toss up LIB/PQ
63.
Montmorency
Jean-François Simard
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CPQ
64.
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Martine Biron
 CA Toss up PQ/CPQ
65.
Champlain
Sonia LeBel
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
66.
Montarville
Nathalie Roy
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
67.
Rosemont
Vincent Marissal [Elected as QS]
 I Toss up LIB/PQ/QS
68.
L’Assomption
François Legault
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
69.
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Alexandre Leduc
 QS QS leaning
70.
Portneuf
Vincent Caron
 CA PCQ leaning
71.
Sanguinet
Christine Fréchette
 CA Leaning CAQ
72.
La Prairie
Christian Dubé [Elected as CAQ]
 I Leaning CAQ
73.
Granby
François Bonnardel
 CA Leaning CAQ
74.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/CPQ
75.
Richmond
André Bachand
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
76.
Ungava
Denis Lamothe
 CA Leaning LIB
77.
Chauveau
Sylvain Lévesque
 CA PCQ leaning
78.
Maurice-Richard
Haroun Bouazzi
 QS Likely LIB
79.
Borduas
Simon Jolin-Barrette
 CA Likely CAQ
80.
Papineau
Mathieu Lacombe
 CA Toss up LIB/CAQ
81.
La Peltrie
Éric Caire
 CA PCQ leaning
82.
Lotbinière-Frontenac
Isabelle Lecours
 CA PCQ leaning
83.
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques
Manon Massé
 QS QS likely
84.
Huntingdon
Carole Mallette
 CA Likely LIB
85.
Bellechasse
Stéphanie Lachance
 CA PCQ likely
86.
Orford
Gilles Bélanger [Elected as CAQ]
 I Likely LIB
87.
Brome-Missisquoi
Isabelle Charest
 CA Likely LIB
88.
Gatineau
Robert Bussière
 CA Likely LIB
89.
Chapleau
Mathieu Lévesque
 CA Likely LIB
90.
Gouin
Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois
 QS QS safe
91.
Laval-des-Rapides
Céline Haytayan
 CA Safe LIB
92.
Beauce-Nord
Luc Provençal
 CA PCQ likely
93.
Soulanges
Marilyne Picard
 CA Safe LIB
94.
Mercier
Ruba Ghazal
 QS QS leaning