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Quebec Conservative Party

Latest update: June 28, 2026
LeaderÉric Duhaime
National popular vote in 202212.9%
Current vote projection12.9% ± 2.1%
Current number of MNA's1
Current seat projection9 [5-13]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 28, 2026 10 5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% Vote efficiency | CPQ 338Canada ©2023 2.2 seat/% [5-13] 13% ± 2% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | June 28, 2026

8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 10.9% ▼ 2022 12.9% 12.9% ± 2.1% ▼ Max. 15.0% ▼ Probabilities % CPQ June 28, 2026

Seat projection | June 28, 2026

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2022 0 seats Min. 5 ▼ 9 ▼ Max. 13 ▼ Probabilities % CPQ June 28, 2026

The Road to 64 Seats | Quebec Conservative Party


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Bellechasse PCQ safe 1 BELL 2. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely 2 BEAN 3. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely 3 BEAS 4. La Peltrie PCQ likely 4 LAPE 5. Chauveau PCQ likely 5 CHAU 6. Portneuf PCQ likely 6 PORT 7. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ leaning 7 LOTF 8. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning 8 CHCH 9. Montmorency PCQ leaning 9 MOMO 10. Lévis Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 10 LEVI 11. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 11 MEGA 12. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 12 VALR 13. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ 13 CODS 14. Charlesbourg Likely PQ 14 CHAR 15. Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ 15 NICO 16. Arthabaska-L’Érable Safe PQ 16 ARTH 17. Louis-Hébert Leaning PQ 17 LHEB 18. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 18 JLES 19. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ 19 CXCB 20. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 20 CHIC 21. Chomedey Safe LIB 21 CHOM 22. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 22 CHPN 23. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ 23 DRUM 24. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Likely PQ 24 MLGL 25. Rousseau Leaning PQ 25 ROUS 26. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 26 DAMC 27. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Likely PQ 27 LVSM 28. Fabre Safe LIB 28 FABR 29. Maskinongé Likely PQ 29 MASK 30. Richmond Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 30 RCHM 31. Daniel-Johnson Likely PQ 31 DAJO 32. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 32 VAUD 33. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 33 LASJ 34. Duplessis Safe PQ 34 DUPL 35. Trois-Rivières Leaning PQ 35 TRIV 36. Soulanges Safe LIB 36 SOUL 37. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 37 PAPI 38. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 38 IBER 39. Bellefeuille Likely PQ 39 BELF 40. Les Plaines Leaning PQ 40 LPLA 41. Huntingdon Likely LIB 41 HUNT 42. Vimont-Auteuil Safe LIB 42 VIMO 43. Jean-Talon Toss up LIB/PQ 43 JTAL 44. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Likely PQ 44 RDLT 45. Sanguinet Leaning CAQ 45 SANG 46. Argenteuil Safe PQ 46 ARGE 47. Mirabel Toss up PQ/CAQ 47 MIRA 48. Roberval Safe PQ 48 ROBE 49. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 49 BALD 50. Nelligan Safe LIB 50 NELL 51. Jonquière Safe PQ 51 JONQ 52. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 52 CHAP 53. Taschereau Toss up PQ/QS 53 TASH 54. Dubuc Safe PQ 54 DUBU 55. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ 55 ABIE 56. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 56 BROM 57. Granby Leaning CAQ 57 GRBY 58. Saint-François Leaning PQ 58 STFR 59. Gatineau Likely LIB 59 GATI 60. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 60 STLR 61. Acadie Safe LIB 61 ACAD 62. Châteauguay Safe LIB 62 CHAT 63. Sainte-Rose Safe LIB 63 STRO 64. LaFontaine Safe LIB 64 LAFO 65. Blainville Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 65 BLAI 66. Beauharnois Toss up PQ/CAQ 66 BEAU 67. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ 67 ABIO 68. Prévost Safe PQ 68 PREV 69. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 69 MILI 70. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 70 MARG 71. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB 71 LVDR 72. Berthier Safe PQ 72 BRTH 73. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ 73 DMON 74. Vachon Leaning PQ 74 VACH 75. René-Lévesque Safe PQ 75 RENE 76. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ 76 STJR 77. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ 77 STHY 78. La Pinière Safe LIB 78 LAPI 79. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 79 JMVI 80. La Prairie Leaning CAQ 80 LAPR 81. Richelieu Likely PQ 81 RCHL 82. Pontiac Safe LIB 82 PONT 83. Groulx Toss up PQ/CAQ 83 GROU 84. Labelle Safe PQ 84 LABL 85. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 85 JACA 86. L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ 86 LASS 87. Masson Likely PQ 87 MASS 88. Marquette Safe LIB 88 MARQ 89. Bertrand Safe PQ 89 BERT 90. Ungava Leaning LIB 90 UNGA 91. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 91 WSTL 92. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ 92 RONT 93. Chambly Toss up PQ/CAQ 93 CHBY 94. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 94 BOUS 95. Saint-Jean Likely PQ 95 STJN 96. Joliette Safe PQ 96 JOLI 97. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 97 NODG 98. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 98 MROU 99. Borduas Likely CAQ 99 BORD 100. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 100 MAMA 101. Hull Safe LIB 101 HULL 102. Verchères Leaning PQ 102 VERC 103. Marie-Victorin Likely PQ 103 MVIC 104. Repentigny Leaning PQ 104 REPE 105. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB 105 ANLR 106. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 106 PATR 107. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 107 CAML 108. Taillon Likely PQ 108 TAIL 109. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 109 LAPO 110. Sherbrooke Leaning PQ 110 SHER 111. Gaspé Safe PQ 111 GASP 112. Bonaventure Safe PQ 112 BONA 113. Viau Safe LIB 113 VIAU 114. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Likely LIB 114 SHSA 115. Verdun Safe LIB 115 VERD 116. Rimouski Safe PQ 116 RIMO 117. Laurier-Dorion Likely LIB 117 LAUD 118. Montarville Leaning CAQ 118 MTRV 119. Orford Likely LIB 119 ORFO 120. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely 120 HOMA 121. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 121 ROSE 122. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 122 SMSJ 123. Maurice-Richard Leaning LIB 123 MAUR 124. Mercier QS likely 124 MERC 125. Terrebonne Likely PQ 125 TERR 126. Gouin QS safe 126 GOUI 127. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 127 IDLM 338Canada Quebec projection Updated June 28, 2026

Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Bellechasse
Stéphanie Lachance
 CA PCQ safe
2.
Beauce-Nord
Luc Provençal
 CA PCQ likely
3.
Beauce-Sud
Samuel Poulin
 CA PCQ likely
4.
La Peltrie
Éric Caire
 CA PCQ likely
5.
Chauveau
Sylvain Lévesque
 CA PCQ likely
6.
Portneuf
Vincent Caron
 CA PCQ likely
7.
Lotbinière-Frontenac
Isabelle Lecours
 CA PCQ leaning
8.
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Martine Biron
 CA PCQ leaning
9.
Montmorency
Jean-François Simard
 CA PCQ leaning
10.
Lévis
Bernard Drainville
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
11.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
12.
Vanier-Les Rivières
Mario Asselin
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
13.
Côte-du-Sud
Mathieu Rivest
 CA Leaning PQ
14.
Charlesbourg
Jonatan Julien
 CA Likely PQ
15.
Nicolet-Bécancour
Donald Martel
 CA Likely PQ
16.
Arthabaska-L’Érable
Alex Boissonneault
 PQ Safe PQ
17.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Leaning PQ
18.
Jean-Lesage
Sol Zanetti
 QS Toss up PQ/QS