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Quebec Liberal Party

Latest update: June 28, 2026
LeaderCharles Milliard
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection25.6% ± 2.7%
Current number of MNA's18
Current seat projection39 [34-46]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 28, 2026 50 45 40 35 30 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2023 1.5 seat/% [34-46] 26% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | June 28, 2026

19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 22.9% ▼ 25.6% ± 2.7% ▼ Max. 28.4% ▼ Probabilities % LIB June 28, 2026

Seat projection | June 28, 2026

27 32 37 42 47 52 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 34 ▼ 39 ▼ Max. 46 ▼ Probabilities % LIB June 28, 2026

The Road to 64 Seats | Quebec Liberal Party


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 1 JACA 2. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 2 BALD 3. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 3 NODG 4. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 4 DAMC 5. Nelligan Safe LIB 5 NELL 6. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 6 WSTL 7. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 7 MARG 8. Marquette Safe LIB 8 MARQ 9. Acadie Safe LIB 9 ACAD 10. LaFontaine Safe LIB 10 LAFO 11. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 11 BOUS 12. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 12 JMVI 13. Pontiac Safe LIB 13 PONT 14. Chomedey Safe LIB 14 CHOM 15. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 15 STLR 16. Viau Safe LIB 16 VIAU 17. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 17 MROU 18. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB 18 ANLR 19. La Pinière Safe LIB 19 LAPI 20. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 20 VAUD 21. Verdun Safe LIB 21 VERD 22. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 22 MILI 23. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 23 LAPO 24. Fabre Safe LIB 24 FABR 25. Hull Safe LIB 25 HULL 26. Vimont-Auteuil Safe LIB 26 VIMO 27. Châteauguay Safe LIB 27 CHAT 28. Sainte-Rose Safe LIB 28 STRO 29. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB 29 LVDR 30. Soulanges Safe LIB 30 SOUL 31. Gatineau Likely LIB 31 GATI 32. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 32 BROM 33. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Likely LIB 33 SHSA 34. Orford Likely LIB 34 ORFO 35. Laurier-Dorion Likely LIB 35 LAUD 36. Huntingdon Likely LIB 36 HUNT 37. Maurice-Richard Leaning LIB 37 MAUR 38. Ungava Leaning LIB 38 UNGA 39. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 39 CHAP 40. Richmond Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 40 RCHM 41. Jean-Talon Toss up LIB/PQ 41 JTAL 42. Saint-François Leaning PQ 42 STFR 43. Sherbrooke Leaning PQ 43 SHER 44. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 44 PAPI 45. Vachon Leaning PQ 45 VACH 46. Blainville Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 46 BLAI 47. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 47 ROSE 48. Groulx Toss up PQ/CAQ 48 GROU 49. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 49 MEGA 50. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ 50 ABIE 51. Montmorency PCQ leaning 51 MOMO 52. Mercier QS likely 52 MERC 53. La Prairie Leaning CAQ 53 LAPR 54. Taillon Likely PQ 54 TAIL 55. Louis-Hébert Leaning PQ 55 LHEB 56. Montarville Leaning CAQ 56 MTRV 57. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ 57 DMON 58. Saint-Jean Likely PQ 58 STJN 59. La Peltrie PCQ likely 59 LAPE 60. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 60 SMSJ 61. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely 61 HOMA 62. Argenteuil Safe PQ 62 ARGE 63. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 63 PATR 64. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 64 CAML 65. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 65 LASJ 66. Marie-Victorin Likely PQ 66 MVIC 67. Gouin QS safe 67 GOUI 68. Bonaventure Safe PQ 68 BONA 69. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 69 IDLM 70. Sanguinet Leaning CAQ 70 SANG 71. Gaspé Safe PQ 71 GASP 72. Trois-Rivières Leaning PQ 72 TRIV 73. Repentigny Leaning PQ 73 REPE 74. Duplessis Safe PQ 74 DUPL 75. Chambly Toss up PQ/CAQ 75 CHBY 76. Charlesbourg Likely PQ 76 CHAR 77. Masson Likely PQ 77 MASS 78. Taschereau Toss up PQ/QS 78 TASH 79. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 79 VALR 80. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 80 CHPN 81. Beauharnois Toss up PQ/CAQ 81 BEAU 82. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Likely PQ 82 LVSM 83. Terrebonne Likely PQ 83 TERR 84. Les Plaines Leaning PQ 84 LPLA 85. Mirabel Toss up PQ/CAQ 85 MIRA 86. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 86 IBER 87. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ 87 STHY 88. L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ 88 LASS 89. Granby Leaning CAQ 89 GRBY 90. Prévost Safe PQ 90 PREV 91. Verchères Leaning PQ 91 VERC 92. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ 92 CODS 93. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 93 JLES 94. Chauveau PCQ likely 94 CHAU 95. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ leaning 95 LOTF 96. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ 96 RONT 97. Bellefeuille Likely PQ 97 BELF 98. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning 98 CHCH 99. Lévis Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 99 LEVI 100. Maskinongé Likely PQ 100 MASK 101. Bertrand Safe PQ 101 BERT 102. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Likely PQ 102 MLGL 103. Daniel-Johnson Likely PQ 103 DAJO 104. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ 104 ABIO 105. Borduas Likely CAQ 105 BORD 106. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ 106 DRUM 107. Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ 107 NICO 108. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ 108 CXCB 109. Richelieu Likely PQ 109 RCHL 110. Portneuf PCQ likely 110 PORT 111. Bellechasse PCQ safe 111 BELL 112. Roberval Safe PQ 112 ROBE 113. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ 113 STJR 114. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Likely PQ 114 RDLT 115. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 115 CHIC 116. Labelle Safe PQ 116 LABL 117. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely 117 BEAS 118. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely 118 BEAN 119. Rimouski Safe PQ 119 RIMO 120. Arthabaska-L’Érable Safe PQ 120 ARTH 121. Rousseau Leaning PQ 121 ROUS 122. René-Lévesque Safe PQ 122 RENE 123. Dubuc Safe PQ 123 DUBU 124. Jonquière Safe PQ 124 JONQ 125. Berthier Safe PQ 125 BRTH 126. Joliette Safe PQ 126 JOLI 127. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 127 MAMA 338Canada Quebec projection Updated June 28, 2026

Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Jacques-Cartier
Greg Kelley
 L Safe LIB
2.
Robert-Baldwin
Brigitte Garceau
 L Safe LIB
3.
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Désirée McGraw
 L Safe LIB
4.
D’Arcy-McGee
Elisabeth Prass
 L Safe LIB
5.
Nelligan
Monsef Derraji
 L Safe LIB
6.
Westmount–Saint-Louis
Jennifer Maccarone
 L Safe LIB
7.
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Fred Beauchemin
 L Safe LIB
8.
Marquette
Enrico Ciccone
 L Safe LIB
9.
Acadie
André A. Morin
 L Safe LIB
10.
LaFontaine
Marc Tanguay
 L Safe LIB
11.
Bourassa-Sauvé
Madwa-Nika Cadet
 L Safe LIB
12.
Jeanne-Mance–Viger
Filomena Rotiroti
 L Safe LIB
13.
Pontiac
André Fortin
 L Safe LIB
14.
Chomedey
Sona Lakhoyan Olivier [Elected as LIB]
 I Safe LIB
15.
Saint-Laurent
Marwah Rizqy [Elected as LIB]
 I Safe LIB
16.
Viau
Frantz Benjamin
 L Safe LIB
17.
Mont-Royal–Outremont
Michelle Setlakwe
 L Safe LIB
18.
Anjou–Louis-Riel
Karine Boivin Roy
 CA Safe LIB
19.
La Pinière
Linda Caron
 L Safe LIB
20.
Vaudreuil
Marie-Claude Nichols
 L Safe LIB
21.
Verdun
Alejandra Zaga-Mendez
 QS Safe LIB
22.
Mille-Îles
Virginie Dufour
 L Safe LIB
23.
Pierre-Laporte
Isabelle Poulet [Elected as CAQ]
 I Safe LIB
24.
Fabre
Alice Abou-Khalil
 CA Safe LIB
25.
Hull
Suzanne Tremblay
 CA Safe LIB
26.
Vimont-Auteuil
Valérie Schmaltz
 CA Safe LIB
27.
Châteauguay
Marie-Belle Gendron
 CA Safe LIB
28.
Sainte-Rose
Christopher Skeete
 CA Safe LIB
29.
Laval-des-Rapides
Céline Haytayan
 CA Safe LIB
30.
Soulanges
Marilyne Picard
 CA Safe LIB
31.
Gatineau
Robert Bussière
 CA Likely LIB
32.
Brome-Missisquoi
Isabelle Charest
 CA Likely LIB
33.
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne
Guillaume Cliche-Rivard
 QS Likely LIB
34.
Orford
Gilles Bélanger [Elected as CAQ]
 I Likely LIB
35.
Laurier-Dorion
Andrès Fontecilla
 QS Likely LIB
36.
Huntingdon
Carole Mallette
 CA Likely LIB
37.
Maurice-Richard
Haroun Bouazzi
 QS Leaning LIB
38.
Ungava
Denis Lamothe
 CA Leaning LIB
39.
Chapleau
Mathieu Lévesque
 CA Toss up LIB/CAQ
40.
Richmond
André Bachand
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
41.
Jean-Talon
Pascal Paradis
 PQ Toss up LIB/PQ
42.
Saint-François
Geneviève Hébert
 CA Leaning PQ
43.
Sherbrooke
Christine Labrie
 QS Leaning PQ
44.
Papineau
Mathieu Lacombe
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
45.
Vachon
Ian Lafrenière
 CA Leaning PQ
46.
Blainville
Mario Laframboise
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
47.
Rosemont
Vincent Marissal [Elected as QS]
 I Toss up PQ/QS
48.
Groulx
Éric Girard
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
49.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
50.
Abitibi-Est
Pierre Dufour [Elected as CAQ]
 I Likely PQ
51.
Montmorency
Jean-François Simard
 CA PCQ leaning
52.
Mercier
Ruba Ghazal
 QS QS likely
53.
La Prairie
Christian Dubé [Elected as CAQ]
 I Leaning CAQ
54.
Taillon
Lionel Carmant
 CA Likely PQ
55.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Leaning PQ
56.
Montarville
Nathalie Roy
 CA Leaning CAQ
57.
Deux-Montagnes
Benoit Charette
 CA Likely PQ
58.
Saint-Jean
Louis Lemieux
 CA Likely PQ
59.
La Peltrie
Éric Caire
 CA PCQ likely
60.
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques
Manon Massé
 QS QS likely
61.
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Alexandre Leduc
 QS QS likely
62.
Argenteuil
Agnès Grondin
 CA Safe PQ
63.
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Chantal Rouleau
 CA Safe PQ