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Quebec Liberal Party

Latest update: May 21, 2026
LeaderCharles Milliard
National popular vote in 202214.4%
Current vote projection27.6% ± 3.0%
Current number of MNA's18
Current seat projection40 [36-50]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | May 21, 2026 60 55 50 45 40 35 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% Vote efficiency | LIB 338Canada ©2023 2.1 seat/% [36-50] 28% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | May 21, 2026

21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 24.6% 27.6% ± 3.0% Max. 30.6% Probabilities % LIB May 21, 2026

Seat projection | May 21, 2026

27 32 37 42 47 52 57 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 36 40 Max. 50 Probabilities % LIB May 21, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Quebec Liberal Party



Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Greg Kelley
L Safe LIB
2.
Brigitte Garceau
L Safe LIB
3.
Désirée McGraw
L Safe LIB
4.
Elisabeth Prass
L Safe LIB
5.
Jennifer Maccarone
L Safe LIB
6.
Monsef Derraji
L Safe LIB
7.
Fred Beauchemin
L Safe LIB
8.
André A. Morin
L Safe LIB
9.
Enrico Ciccone
L Safe LIB
10.
Madwa-Nika Cadet
L Safe LIB
11.
Marc Tanguay
L Safe LIB
12.
André Fortin
L Safe LIB
13.
Filomena Rotiroti
L Safe LIB
14.
Marwah Rizqy [Elected as LIB]
I Safe LIB
15.
Sona Lakhoyan Olivier [Elected as LIB]
I Safe LIB
16.
Frantz Benjamin
L Safe LIB
17.
Michelle Setlakwe
L Safe LIB
18.
Karine Boivin Roy
CA Safe LIB
19.
Alejandra Zaga-Mendez
QS Safe LIB
20.
Linda Caron
L Safe LIB
21.
Marie-Claude Nichols
L Safe LIB
22.
Suzanne Tremblay
CA Safe LIB
23.
Virginie Dufour
L Safe LIB
24.
Alice Abou-Khalil
CA Safe LIB
25.
Isabelle Poulet [Elected as CAQ]
I Safe LIB
26.
Valérie Schmaltz
CA Safe LIB
27.
Christopher Skeete
CA Safe LIB
28.
Marie-Belle Gendron
CA Safe LIB
29.
Céline Haytayan
CA Safe LIB
30.
Marilyne Picard
CA Safe LIB
31.
Guillaume Cliche-Rivard
QS Safe LIB
32.
Robert Bussière
CA Likely LIB
33.
Andrès Fontecilla
QS Likely LIB
34.
Isabelle Charest
CA Likely LIB
35.
Gilles Bélanger [Elected as CAQ]
I Likely LIB
36.
Carole Mallette
CA Likely LIB
37.
Mathieu Lévesque
CA Likely LIB
38.
Haroun Bouazzi
QS Likely LIB
39.
Denis Lamothe
CA Leaning LIB
40.
André Bachand
CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
41.
Christine Labrie
QS Toss up LIB/PQ
42.
Pascal Paradis
PQ Toss up LIB/PQ
43.
Ian Lafrenière
CA Toss up LIB/PQ
44.
Vincent Marissal [Elected as QS]
I Toss up LIB/PQ/QS
45.
Mathieu Lacombe
CA Toss up LIB/CAQ
46.
Geneviève Hébert
CA Leaning PQ
47.
François Jacques
CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ/CPQ
48.
Jean-François Simard
CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CPQ
49.
Mario Laframboise
CA Leaning PQ
50.
Éric Girard
CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
51.
Ruba Ghazal
QS QS leaning
52.
Pierre Dufour [Elected as CAQ]
I Leaning PQ
53.
Christian Dubé [Elected as CAQ]
I Leaning CAQ
54.
Éric Caire
CA PCQ leaning
55.
Lionel Carmant
CA Likely PQ
56.
Nathalie Roy
CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
57.
Geneviève Guilbault
CA Likely PQ
58.
Benoit Charette
CA Likely PQ
59. QS QS likely
60.
Louis Lemieux
CA Likely PQ
61.
Éric Girard
CA Safe PQ
62.
Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon
PQ Safe PQ
63.
Alexandre Leduc
QS QS leaning
64.
Mario Asselin
CA Likely PQ
65.
Chantal Rouleau
CA Safe PQ
66.
Shirley Dorismond
CA Safe PQ
67.
Christine Fréchette
CA Leaning CAQ
68.
Jonatan Julien
CA Likely PQ
69.
Jean Boulet
CA Leaning PQ