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Coalition avenir Québec

Latest update: June 28, 2026
LeaderChristine Fréchette
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection21.5% ± 3.3%
Current number of MNA's79
Current seat projection12 [0-26]

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 28, 2026 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% Majority: 64 seats Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2023 5.0 seat/% [0-26] 21% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | June 28, 2026

14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 18.2% ▼ 21.5% ± 3.3% ▼ Max. 24.7% ▼ Probabilities % CAQ June 28, 2026

Seat projection | June 28, 2026

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 3% 2% 1% 12 ▼ Max. 26 ▼ Probabilities % CAQ June 28, 2026

The Road to 64 Seats | Coalition avenir Québec


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Borduas Likely CAQ 1 BORD 2. Sanguinet Leaning CAQ 2 SANG 3. La Prairie Leaning CAQ 3 LAPR 4. Granby Leaning CAQ 4 GRBY 5. Montarville Leaning CAQ 5 MTRV 6. Beauharnois Toss up PQ/CAQ 6 BEAU 7. Chambly Toss up PQ/CAQ 7 CHBY 8. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 8 PAPI 9. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 9 CHAP 10. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 10 IBER 11. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 11 CHPN 12. Groulx Toss up PQ/CAQ 12 GROU 13. Mirabel Toss up PQ/CAQ 13 MIRA 14. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 14 MEGA 15. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 15 VALR 16. Lévis Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 16 LEVI 17. L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ 17 LASS 18. Richmond Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 18 RCHM 19. Rousseau Leaning PQ 19 ROUS 20. Repentigny Leaning PQ 20 REPE 21. Louis-Hébert Leaning PQ 21 LHEB 22. Blainville Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 22 BLAI 23. Trois-Rivières Leaning PQ 23 TRIV 24. Verchères Leaning PQ 24 VERC 25. Les Plaines Leaning PQ 25 LPLA 26. Vachon Leaning PQ 26 VACH 27. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Likely PQ 27 MLGL 28. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning 28 CHCH 29. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ leaning 29 LOTF 30. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ 30 CODS 31. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ 31 DMON 32. Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ 32 NICO 33. Masson Likely PQ 33 MASS 34. Terrebonne Likely PQ 34 TERR 35. Charlesbourg Likely PQ 35 CHAR 36. Montmorency PCQ leaning 36 MOMO 37. Portneuf PCQ likely 37 PORT 38. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely 38 BEAS 39. Richelieu Likely PQ 39 RCHL 40. Chauveau PCQ likely 40 CHAU 41. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Likely PQ 41 RDLT 42. Bellefeuille Likely PQ 42 BELF 43. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ 43 ABIE 44. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Likely PQ 44 LVSM 45. Maskinongé Likely PQ 45 MASK 46. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely 46 BEAN 47. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ 47 DRUM 48. Daniel-Johnson Likely PQ 48 DAJO 49. Saint-François Leaning PQ 49 STFR 50. Taillon Likely PQ 50 TAIL 51. La Peltrie PCQ likely 51 LAPE 52. Orford Likely LIB 52 ORFO 53. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ 53 RONT 54. Huntingdon Likely LIB 54 HUNT 55. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ 55 STHY 56. Saint-Jean Likely PQ 56 STJN 57. Marie-Victorin Likely PQ 57 MVIC 58. Dubuc Safe PQ 58 DUBU 59. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 59 BROM 60. Gatineau Likely LIB 60 GATI 61. Roberval Safe PQ 61 ROBE 62. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 62 PATR 63. Jonquière Safe PQ 63 JONQ 64. Soulanges Safe LIB 64 SOUL 65. Bellechasse PCQ safe 65 BELL 66. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ 66 CXCB 67. Joliette Safe PQ 67 JOLI 68. René-Lévesque Safe PQ 68 RENE 69. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ 69 STJR 70. Berthier Safe PQ 70 BRTH 71. Labelle Safe PQ 71 LABL 72. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ 72 ABIO 73. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 73 CHIC 74. Prévost Safe PQ 74 PREV 75. Rimouski Safe PQ 75 RIMO 76. Bertrand Safe PQ 76 BERT 77. Sainte-Rose Safe LIB 77 STRO 78. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 78 LASJ 79. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB 79 LVDR 80. Gaspé Safe PQ 80 GASP 81. Arthabaska-L’Érable Safe PQ 81 ARTH 82. Argenteuil Safe PQ 82 ARGE 83. Duplessis Safe PQ 83 DUPL 84. Châteauguay Safe LIB 84 CHAT 85. Bonaventure Safe PQ 85 BONA 86. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 86 LAPO 87. Vimont-Auteuil Safe LIB 87 VIMO 88. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 88 MAMA 89. Fabre Safe LIB 89 FABR 90. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 90 IDLM 91. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 91 MILI 92. Sherbrooke Leaning PQ 92 SHER 93. Hull Safe LIB 93 HULL 94. La Pinière Safe LIB 94 LAPI 95. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 95 CAML 96. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 96 VAUD 97. Ungava Leaning LIB 97 UNGA 98. Jean-Talon Toss up LIB/PQ 98 JTAL 99. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB 99 ANLR 100. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 100 ROSE 101. Taschereau Toss up PQ/QS 101 TASH 102. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely 102 HOMA 103. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 103 JLES 104. Maurice-Richard Leaning LIB 104 MAUR 105. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 105 SMSJ 106. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 106 MROU 107. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 107 STLR 108. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 108 JMVI 109. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Likely LIB 109 SHSA 110. Verdun Safe LIB 110 VERD 111. Gouin QS safe 111 GOUI 112. Pontiac Safe LIB 112 PONT 113. LaFontaine Safe LIB 113 LAFO 114. Marquette Safe LIB 114 MARQ 115. Mercier QS likely 115 MERC 116. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 116 BOUS 117. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 117 MARG 118. Laurier-Dorion Likely LIB 118 LAUD 119. Viau Safe LIB 119 VIAU 120. Acadie Safe LIB 120 ACAD 121. Chomedey Safe LIB 121 CHOM 122. Nelligan Safe LIB 122 NELL 123. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 123 WSTL 124. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 124 BALD 125. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 125 NODG 126. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 126 JACA 127. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 127 DAMC 338Canada Quebec projection Updated June 28, 2026

Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Borduas
Simon Jolin-Barrette
 CA Likely CAQ
2.
Sanguinet
Christine Fréchette
 CA Leaning CAQ
3.
La Prairie
Christian Dubé [Elected as CAQ]
 I Leaning CAQ
4.
Granby
François Bonnardel
 CA Leaning CAQ
5.
Montarville
Nathalie Roy
 CA Leaning CAQ
6.
Beauharnois
Claude Reid
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
7.
Chambly
Jean-François Roberge
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
8.
Papineau
Mathieu Lacombe
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
9.
Chapleau
Mathieu Lévesque
 CA Toss up LIB/CAQ
10.
Iberville
Audrey Bogemans
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
11.
Champlain
Sonia LeBel
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
12.
Groulx
Éric Girard
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
13.
Mirabel
Sylvie D’Amours
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
14.
Mégantic
François Jacques
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
15.
Vanier-Les Rivières
Mario Asselin
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
16.
Lévis
Bernard Drainville
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ
17.
L’Assomption
François Legault
 CA Toss up PQ/CAQ
18.
Richmond
André Bachand
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
19.
Rousseau
Louis-Charles Thouin
 CA Leaning PQ
20.
Repentigny
Pascale Déry
 CA Leaning PQ
21.
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault
 CA Leaning PQ
22.
Blainville
Mario Laframboise
 CA Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ
23.
Trois-Rivières
Jean Boulet
 CA Leaning PQ
24.
Verchères
Suzanne Roy
 CA Leaning PQ
25.
Les Plaines
Lucie Lecours
 CA Leaning PQ
26.
Vachon
Ian Lafrenière
 CA Leaning PQ
27.
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie
Vacant
 Likely PQ
28.
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Martine Biron
 CA PCQ leaning
29.
Lotbinière-Frontenac
Isabelle Lecours
 CA PCQ leaning
30.
Côte-du-Sud
Mathieu Rivest
 CA Leaning PQ
31.
Deux-Montagnes
Benoit Charette
 CA Likely PQ
32.
Nicolet-Bécancour
Donald Martel
 CA Likely PQ
33.
Masson
Mathieu Lemay
 CA Likely PQ
34.
Terrebonne
Catherine Gentilcore
 PQ Likely PQ
35.
Charlesbourg
Jonatan Julien
 CA Likely PQ
36.
Montmorency
Jean-François Simard
 CA PCQ leaning
37.
Portneuf
Vincent Caron
 CA PCQ likely
38.
Beauce-Sud
Samuel Poulin
 CA PCQ likely
39.
Richelieu
Jean-Bernard Émond
 CA Likely PQ
40.
Chauveau
Sylvain Lévesque
 CA PCQ likely
41.
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques
Amélie Dionne
 CA Likely PQ
42.
Bellefeuille
Vacant
 Likely PQ
43.
Abitibi-Est
Pierre Dufour [Elected as CAQ]
 I Likely PQ
44.
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice
Marie-Louise Tardif
 CA Likely PQ
45.
Maskinongé
Simon Allaire
 CA Likely PQ
46.
Beauce-Nord
Luc Provençal
 CA PCQ likely
47.
Drummond–Bois-Francs
Sébastien Schneeberger
 CA Likely PQ
48.
Daniel-Johnson
André Lamontagne
 CA Likely PQ
49.
Saint-François
Geneviève Hébert
 CA Leaning PQ
50.
Taillon
Lionel Carmant
 CA Likely PQ
51.
La Peltrie
Éric Caire
 CA PCQ likely
52.
Orford
Gilles Bélanger [Elected as CAQ]
 I Likely LIB
53.
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue
Daniel Bernard
 CA Likely PQ
54.
Huntingdon
Carole Mallette
 CA Likely LIB
55.
Saint-Hyacinthe
Chantal Soucy
 CA Likely PQ
56.
Saint-Jean
Louis Lemieux
 CA Likely PQ
57.
Marie-Victorin
Shirley Dorismond
 CA Likely PQ
58.
Dubuc
François Tremblay [Elected as CAQ]
 I Safe PQ
59.
Brome-Missisquoi
Isabelle Charest
 CA Likely LIB
60.
Gatineau
Robert Bussière
 CA Likely LIB
61.
Roberval
Nancy Guillemette
 CA Safe PQ
62.
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Chantal Rouleau
 CA Safe PQ
63.
Jonquière
Yannick Gagnon
 CA Safe PQ
64.
Soulanges
Marilyne Picard
 CA Safe LIB
65.
Bellechasse
Stéphanie Lachance
 CA PCQ safe
66.
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré
Kariane Bourassa
 CA Safe PQ