logo
logo
Quebec
Quebec flag

Coalition avenir Québec

Latest update: October 6, 2026
LeaderChristine Fréchette
National popular vote in 202613.3%
Current vote projection13.3% ± 1.0%
Current number of MNA's0
Current seat projection0 [1-1]

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…

Seat projection Popular vote projection | October 6, 2026 10 5 12% 13% 14% 15% Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2026 0.4 seat/% [0-0] 13% ± 1% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | October 6, 2026

11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 12.3% ▼ 13.3% ± 1.0% ▼ Max. 14.3% ▼ Probabilities % CAQ October 6, 2026

Seat projection | October 6, 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 1 ▼ Max. 1 ▼ Probabilities % CAQ October 6, 2026
✓ Copied!

The Road to 64 Seats | Coalition avenir Québec


Majority: 64 seats Hover or tap any riding to view its projection 1. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 1 TRIV 2. Jonquière Leaning PQ 2 JONQ 3. Vachon Toss up LIB/PQ 3 VACH 4. Borduas Safe PQ 4 BORD 5. Duplessis Safe PQ 5 DUPL 6. Beauce-Sud PCQ safe 6 BEAS 7. Repentigny Safe PQ 7 REPE 8. Bonaventure Safe PQ 8 BONA 9. Richelieu Safe PQ 9 RCHL 10. Granby Safe PQ 10 GRBY 11. Mégantic PCQ likely 11 MEGA 12. Montarville Toss up LIB/PQ 12 MTRV 13. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Safe PQ 13 RDLT 14. Maskinongé Likely PQ 14 MASK 15. Drummond–Bois-Francs Toss up PQ/CPQ 15 DRUM 16. Labelle Safe PQ 16 LABL 17. Beauharnois Safe PQ 17 BEAU 18. Chambly Safe PQ 18 CHBY 19. Iberville Safe PQ 19 IBER 20. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Safe PQ 20 ROUY 21. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ 21 PATR 22. Roberval Likely PQ 22 ROBV 23. Bertrand Safe PQ 23 BERT 24. Portneuf PCQ safe 24 PORT 25. Verchères Safe PQ 25 VERC 26. Groulx Likely PQ 26 GROU 27. Rimouski Safe PQ 27 RIMO 28. Joliette Safe PQ 28 JOLI 29. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré PCQ safe 29 CXCB 30. Prévost Safe PQ 30 PREV 31. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe PQ 31 STHY 32. René-Lévesque Safe PQ 32 RENE 33. Lévis PCQ safe 33 LEVI 34. Champlain Toss up PQ/CPQ 34 CHPN 35. Côte-du-Sud PCQ safe 35 CÔDS 36. Saint-Jean Safe PQ 36 STJN 37. L’Assomption Safe PQ 37 LASS 38. Saint-François Leaning PQ 38 STFR 39. La Prairie Leaning LIB 39 LAPR 40. Chapleau Safe LIB 40 CHAP 41. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ 41 STJR 42. Chicoutimi Safe PQ 42 CHIC 43. Nicolet-Bécancour PCQ safe 43 NICO 44. Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ 44 LVSM 45. Masson Safe PQ 45 MASS 46. Taillon Likely PQ 46 TAIL 47. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ 47 ABIO 48. Berthier Safe PQ 48 BRTH 49. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ 49 LASJ 50. Terrebonne Safe PQ 50 TERR 51. Daniel-Johnson Likely PQ 51 DAJO 52. Blainville Likely PQ 52 BLAI 53. Mirabel Safe PQ 53 MIRA 54. Dubuc Likely PQ 54 DUBU 55. Deux-Montagnes Safe PQ 55 DMON 56. Sanguinet Safe PQ 56 SANG 57. Anjou–Louis-Riel Safe LIB 57 ANLR 58. Soulanges Safe LIB 58 SOUL 59. Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Likely PQ 59 MLGL 60. Châteauguay Likely LIB 60 CHAT 61. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ 61 MVIC 62. Gaspé Safe PQ 62 GASP 63. Arthabaska-L’Érable PCQ likely 63 ARTH 64. Richmond Likely PQ 64 RCHM 65. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 65 BROM 66. Louis-Hébert PCQ leaning 66 LHEB 67. Sainte-Rose Safe LIB 67 STRO 68. Vanier-Les Rivières PCQ safe 68 VALR 69. Montmorency PCQ safe 69 MOMO 70. Rousseau Safe PQ 70 ROUS 71. Les Plaines Safe PQ 71 LPLA 72. Vimont-Auteuil Safe LIB 72 VIMO 73. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ 73 ABIE 74. Bellefeuille Safe PQ 74 BELF 75. Huntingdon Leaning PQ 75 HUNT 76. Orford Safe LIB 76 ORFO 77. Charlesbourg PCQ safe 77 CHAR 78. Hull Safe LIB 78 HULL 79. Laval-des-Rapides Safe LIB 79 LVDR 80. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ safe 80 CHCH 81. Argenteuil Likely PQ 81 ARGE 82. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ 82 PAPI 83. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/QS 83 SHER 84. Vaudreuil Safe LIB 84 VAUD 85. Gatineau Safe LIB 85 GATI 86. Ungava Likely PQ 86 UNGA 87. Chauveau PCQ safe 87 CHAU 88. La Pinière Safe LIB 88 LAPI 89. Mille-Îles Safe LIB 89 MILI 90. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ safe 90 LOTF 91. Bourassa-Sauvé Safe LIB 91 BOUS 92. Jean-Lesage QS safe 92 JLES 93. Bellechasse PCQ safe 93 BELL 94. Pierre-Laporte Safe LIB 94 LAPO 95. La Peltrie PCQ safe 95 LAPE 96. Chomedey Safe LIB 96 CHOM 97. Fabre Safe LIB 97 FABR 98. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ 98 CAML 99. Jean-Talon Leaning LIB 99 JTAL 100. Maurice-Richard Toss up LIB/QS 100 MAUR 101. Marguerite-Bourgeoys Safe LIB 101 MARG 102. Beauce-Nord PCQ safe 102 BEAN 103. Rosemont QS likely 103 ROSE 104. Marquette Safe LIB 104 MARQ 105. Taschereau QS safe 105 TASH 106. Matane-Matapédia-Mitis Safe PQ 106 MAMA 107. LaFontaine Safe LIB 107 LAFO 108. Acadie Safe LIB 108 ACAD 109. Pontiac Safe LIB 109 PONT 110. Mont-Royal–Outremont Safe LIB 110 MROU 111. Verdun Leaning LIB 111 VERD 112. Nelligan Safe LIB 112 NELL 113. Viau Likely LIB 113 VIAU 114. Saint-Laurent Safe LIB 114 STLR 115. Jeanne-Mance–Viger Safe LIB 115 JMVI 116. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS safe 116 HOMA 117. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ 117 IDLM 118. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Toss up LIB/QS 118 SHSA 119. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS safe 119 SMSJ 120. Westmount–Saint-Louis Safe LIB 120 WSTL 121. Robert-Baldwin Safe LIB 121 BALD 122. Mercier QS safe 122 MERC 123. Gouin QS safe 123 GOUI 124. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Safe LIB 124 NODG 125. Jacques-Cartier Safe LIB 125 JACA 126. D’Arcy-McGee Safe LIB 126 DAMC 127. Laurier-Dorion QS safe 127 LAUD 338Canada Quebec projection Updated October 6, 2026
✓ Copied!

Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Trois-Rivières
Jean Pellerin
 PQ Toss up PQ/CAQ
2.
Jonquière
Jimmy Bouchard
 PQ Leaning PQ
3.
Vachon
Affine Lwalalika
 L Toss up LIB/PQ