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Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: March 15, 2026
LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection45.6% ± 3.4%
Current number of MPs170
Current seat projection209 [178-244]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 15, 2026 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 11.3 seat/% 209 [178-244] 46% ± 3% 2019 2021 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

LPC 209 [178-244] March 15, 2026 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 6/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 7/10 QC 45/78 ON 86/122 MB 7/14 SK 5/14 AB 8/37 BC 27/43 YT NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Vote projection | March 15, 2026

38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 42.2% 2025 43.8% 45.6% ± 3.4% Max. 49.0% Probabilities % LPC March 15, 2026

Seat projection | March 15, 2026

135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats Min. 178 209 Max. 244 Probabilities % LPC March 15, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Districts and MPs Current party Projection
1.
Serge Cormier
L LPC safe
2.
Tom Osborne
L LPC safe
3.
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
L LPC safe
4. L LPC safe
5.
Darren Fisher
L LPC safe
6.
Francis Scarpaleggia
L LPC safe
7.
Marie-France Lalonde
L LPC safe
8.
Sean Casey
L LPC safe
9.
Lena Metlege Diab
L LPC safe
10. L LPC safe
11.
Ginette Petitpas Taylor
L LPC safe
12.
Shaun Chen
L LPC safe
13.
Ginette Lavack
L LPC safe
14.
Patricia Lattanzio
L LPC safe
15.
Rob Oliphant
L LPC safe
16.
Terry Duguid
L LPC safe
17.
Julie Dabrusin
L LPC safe
18.
Wade Grant
L LPC safe
19. L LPC safe
20. L LPC safe
21. L LPC safe
22.
Leslie Church
L LPC safe
23.
Dominic LeBlanc
L LPC safe
24.
David McGuinty
L LPC safe
25.
Mark Carney
L LPC safe
26.
Taleeb Noormohamed
L LPC safe
27. L LPC safe
28. LPC safe
29. LPC safe
30.
Kevin Lamoureux
L LPC safe
31.
Kody Blois
L LPC safe
32.
Evan Solomon
L LPC safe
33. L LPC safe
34.
Mark Gerretsen
L LPC safe
35.
Alexandra Mendes
L LPC safe
36.
Michael Coteau
L LPC safe
37.
Sameer Zuberi
L LPC safe
38.
Greg Fergus
L LPC safe
39.
Joanne Thompson
L LPC safe
40.
Anita Vandenbeld
L LPC safe
41. L LPC safe
42.
Steven MacKinnon
L LPC safe
43.
Shannon Miedema
L LPC safe
44.
Paul Connors
L LPC safe
45.
Jonathan Wilkinson
L LPC safe
46.
Jenna Sudds
L LPC safe
47.
Melanie Joly
L LPC safe
48. L LPC safe
49.
Eric St-Pierre
L LPC safe
50. L LPC safe
51. L LPC safe
52.
James Maloney
L LPC safe
53. L LPC safe
54.
Doug Eyolfson
L LPC safe
55.
Emmanuella Lambropoulos
L LPC safe
56. L LPC safe
57.
Bardish Chagger
L LPC safe
58.
Peter Schiefke
L LPC safe
59.
Abdelhaq Sari
L LPC safe
60.
Will Greaves
L LPC safe
61. L LPC safe
62.
Hedy Fry
L LPC safe
63.
Yasir Naqvi
L LPC safe
64.
Arielle Kayabaga
L LPC safe
65. L LPC safe
66.
Joel Lightbound
L LPC safe
67.
Julie Dzerowicz
L LPC safe
68.
Sophie Chatel
L LPC safe
69.
Angelo Iacono
L LPC safe
70.
Peter Fragiskatos
L LPC safe
71.
Annie Koutrakis
L LPC safe
72.
Rachel Bendayan
L LPC safe
73.
Stephanie McLean
L LPC safe
74.
Marjorie Michel
L LPC safe
75.
Dominique O’Rourke
L LPC safe
76.
Carlos Leitao
L LPC safe
77.
Steven Guilbeault
L LPC safe
78.
Faycal El-Khoury
L LPC safe
79.
Francois-Philippe Champagne
L LPC safe
80.
Elisabeth Briere
L LPC safe
81. L LPC safe
82. L LPC safe
83.
Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault
L LPC safe
84.
Mike Kelloway
L LPC safe
85. L LPC safe
86.
Sherry Romanado
L LPC safe
87.
Heath MacDonald
L LPC safe
88. L LPC safe
89.
Karina Gould
L LPC safe
90.
Jennifer McKelvie
L LPC safe
91. L LPC safe
92.
Louis Villeneuve
L LPC safe
93. L LPC safe
94.
Eleanor Olszewski
L LPC safe
95. L LPC safe
96. L LPC safe
97.
Jessica Fancy-Landry
L LPC safe
98.
Marianne Dandurand
L LPC safe
99.
Marie-Gabrielle Menard
L LPC safe
100.
Kent McDonald
L LPC safe
101.
Yvan Baker
L LPC safe
102.
Emma Harrison
L LPC safe
103.
Giovanna Mingarelli
L LPC safe
104. L LPC safe
105.
John Zerucelli
L LPC safe
106.
Juanita Nathan
L LPC safe
107.
Chris Bittle
L LPC safe
108.
Maggie Chi
L LPC safe
109.
Anthony Housefather
L LPC safe
110.
Viviane Lapointe
L LPC safe
111. L LPC safe
112.
Ali Ehsassi
L LPC safe
113.
Tim Hodgson
L LPC likely
114.
Fares Al Soud
L LPC likely
115.
Sean Fraser
L LPC likely
116. L LPC likely
117.
Corey Hogan
L LPC likely
118.
Iqwinder Gaheer
L LPC likely
119.
Caroline Desrochers
L LPC likely
120.
Ryan Turnbull
L LPC likely
121.
Brendan Hanley
L LPC likely
122.
Adam van Koeverden
L LPC likely
123.
Jill McKnight
L LPC likely
124.
Madeleine Chenette
L LPC likely
125.
Charles Sousa
L LPC likely
126.
Rebecca Alty
L LPC likely
127.
Sima Acan
L LPC likely
128.
Linda Lapointe
L LPC likely
129.
Wade Wei Lin Chang
L LPC likely
130.
Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba
L LPC likely
131.
Bobby Morrissey
L LPC likely
132. L LPC likely
133.
Jean-Yves Duclos
L LPC likely
134.
Lisa Hepfner
L LPC likely
135.
Anita Anand
L LPC likely
136.
Bruce Fanjoy
L LPC likely
137.
Helena Jaczek
L LPC likely
138.
Christopher Malette
L LPC likely
139.
Vince Gasparro
L LPC likely
140.
Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
141.
Rebecca Chartrand
L LPC likely
142.
Aslam Rana
L LPC likely
143. L LPC likely
144. L LPC likely
145.
Marcus Powlowski
L LPC likely
146. L LPC likely
147. L LPC likely
148. L LPC likely
149.
Philip Earle
L LPC likely
150.
Sukh Dhaliwal
L LPC likely
151. L LPC likely
152.
Randeep Sarai
L LPC likely
153.
Jacques Ramsay
L LPC likely
154. L LPC likely
155.
Dalwinder Gill
C LPC likely
156. L LPC likely
157.
Maninder Sidhu
L LPC likely
158.
Pauline Rochefort
L LPC likely
159.
Gurbux Saini
L LPC likely
160.
Matt Jeneroux [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
161. C LPC likely
162.
Steeve Lavoie
L LPC likely
163. C LPC likely
164. L LPC likely
165.
Sonia Sidhu
L LPC likely
166. C LPC likely
167. L LPC leaning
168. L LPC leaning
169. L LPC leaning
170.
Stephen Fuhr
L LPC leaning
171.
Kelly McCauley
C LPC leaning
172.
Amandeep Sodhi
L LPC leaning
173.
Kristina Tesser Derksen
L LPC leaning
174.
Greg McLean
C LPC leaning
175.
Raquel Dancho
C LPC leaning
176.
Timothy Watchorn
L LPC leaning
177.
Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]
L LPC leaning
178. C LPC leaning
179. C LPC leaning
180.
Sandra Cobena
C LPC leaning
181. C LPC leaning
182.
Amarjeet Gill
C LPC leaning
183. C LPC leaning
184.
Philip Lawrence
C LPC leaning
185.
Tim Uppal
C LPC leaning
186.
Fred Davies
C LPC leaning
187.
Jagsharan Singh Mahal
C Toss up LPC/CPC
188.
Warren Steinley
C Toss up LPC/CPC
189.
Michael Kram
C Toss up LPC/CPC
190.
Natilien Joseph
L Toss up LPC/BQ
191.
Corey Tochor
C Toss up LPC/CPC
192.
Connie Cody
C Toss up LPC/CPC
193.
Lori Idlout [Elected as NDP]
L Toss up LPC/NDP
194.
Carol Anstey
C Toss up LPC/CPC
195. C Toss up LPC/CPC
196. C Toss up LPC/CPC
197.
Adam Chambers
C Toss up LPC/CPC
198.
Scott Reid
C Toss up LPC/CPC
199.
Don Davies
N Toss up LPC/NDP
200. C Toss up LPC/CPC
201.
Jenny Kwan
N Toss up LPC/NDP
202. C Toss up LPC/CPC
203. C Toss up LPC/CPC
204. C Toss up LPC/CPC
205.
Rhonda Kirkland
C Toss up LPC/CPC
206.
Vacant
Toss up LPC/BQ
207.
Kevin Waugh
C Toss up LPC/CPC
208.
Amanpreet Singh Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC
209. C Toss up LPC/CPC
210. C Toss up LPC/CPC
211.
Billy Morin
C Toss up LPC/CPC
212.
Ziad Aboultaif
C Toss up LPC/CPC
213. C Toss up LPC/CPC
214. C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
215.
Richard Martel
C Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
216.
Leah Gazan
N Toss up LPC/NDP
217.
Roman Baber
C Toss up LPC/CPC
218.
Clifford Small
C Toss up LPC/CPC
219.
Vincent Neil Ho
C Toss up LPC/CPC
220.
Andreanne Larouche
B Toss up LPC/BQ
221.
John Williamson
C Toss up LPC/CPC
222. C Toss up LPC/CPC
223.
Éric Lefebvre
C Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
224.
Tamara Kronis
C Toss up LPC/CPC
225.
Dean Allison
C Toss up LPC/CPC
226.
Shuv Majumdar
C Toss up LPC/CPC
227. C Toss up LPC/CPC
228.
Terry Dowdall
C Toss up LPC/CPC
229. C Toss up LPC/CPC
230. C Toss up LPC/CPC
231. C Toss up LPC/CPC
232.
Scott Aitchison
C Toss up LPC/CPC
233. C Toss up LPC/CPC
234.
Lianne Rood
C Toss up LPC/CPC
235.
Harbinder Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC
236.
Rob Moore
C Toss up LPC/CPC
237.
Patrick Bonin
B BQ leaning
238.
Eric Melillo
C CPC leaning
239.
Michelle Rempel Garner
C CPC leaning
240.
David McKenzie
C CPC leaning
241.
Sukhman Singh Gill
C CPC leaning
242. C CPC leaning
243.
Kurt Holman
C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
244.
Ben Lobb
C CPC leaning
245. C CPC leaning
246.
Mario Beaulieu
B BQ leaning
247. C CPC leaning
248.
John Nater
C CPC leaning
249. C CPC leaning
250.
Kelly DeRidder
C Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC
251. C CPC leaning
252. C CPC leaning
253.
Gabriel Hardy
C Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
254. B BQ leaning
255. C CPC leaning
256.
Jean-Denis Garon
B BQ leaning
257. B BQ leaning
258.
Shuv Majumdar
C CPC leaning
259. C CPC likely
260.
Arpan Khanna
C CPC likely
261.
Gord Johns
N NDP leaning
262. C CPC likely
263.
Jacob Mantle
C CPC likely
264.
Marie-Helene Gaudreau
B BQ likely
265. C CPC likely
266.
Rachael Thomas
C CPC likely
267.
Jasraj Singh Hallan
C CPC likely
268. B BQ likely
269. C CPC likely
270.
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas
B BQ likely
271.
Christine Normandin
B BQ likely
272.
Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay
B BQ likely
273.
Elizabeth May
G GPC likely
274.
Alexandre Boulerice
N NDP likely
275. C CPC likely
276. C CPC likely
277.
Richard Bragdon
C CPC likely
278.
Jacques Gourde
C CPC likely
279.
Rheal Fortin
B BQ likely
280. B BQ likely
281.
John Brassard
C CPC likely
282.
Mark Strahl
C CPC likely
283.
Yves-Francois Blanchet
B BQ likely
284.
Brad Redekopp
C CPC likely
285.
Leslyn Lewis
C CPC likely
286. C CPC likely
287.
Michael Guglielmin
C CPC likely
288.
Chris Lewis
C CPC likely
289. C CPC likely
290.
Martin Champoux
B BQ likely
291. C CPC likely
292. C CPC likely
293. C CPC likely
294. B BQ likely
295.
Mario Simard
B BQ likely
296. C CPC likely
297. C CPC likely
298.
Gabriel Ste-Marie
B BQ likely
299. C CPC likely
300.
Stephanie Kusie
C CPC likely
301.
Colin Reynolds
C Toss up CPC/NDP
302.
Kyle Seeback
C CPC safe
303.
Anna Roberts
C CPC safe
304.
Kerry Diotte
C Toss up CPC/NDP
305. B BQ safe
306.
Luc Theriault
B BQ safe
307.
Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe
B BQ safe
308. C CPC safe
309.
Sebastien Lemire
B BQ safe
310.
Tom Kmiec
C CPC safe
311.
Andrew Scheer
C CPC safe
312. C CPC safe
313.
Heather McPherson
N NDP safe