Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: September 20, 2026

Leader	Mark Carney
National popular vote in 2025	43.8%
Current vote projection	46.0% ± 4.4%
Current number of MPs	174
Current seat projection	230 [193-266]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Vote projection | September 20, 2026

Seat projection | September 20, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada

	Districts and MPs		Current party	Projection
1.	Orléans Marie-France Lalonde		L	LPC safe
2.	Don Valley West Rob Oliphant		L	LPC safe
3.	Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park Gary Anandasangaree		L	LPC safe
4.	Scarborough North Shaun Chen		L	LPC safe
5.	Acadie—Bathurst Serge Cormier		L	LPC safe
6.	Nepean Mark Carney		L	LPC safe
7.	Lac-Saint-Louis Francis Scarpaleggia		L	LPC safe
8.	Cape Spear Tom Osborne		L	LPC safe
9.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Leslie Church		L	LPC safe
10.	Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel Patricia Lattanzio		L	LPC safe
11.	Winnipeg South Centre Ben Carr		L	LPC safe
12.	Ottawa South David McGuinty		L	LPC safe
13.	Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Darren Fisher		L	LPC safe
14.	Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester Mona Fortier		L	LPC safe
15.	Vancouver Quadra Wade Grant		L	LPC safe
16.	Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Buckley Belanger		L	LPC safe
17.	Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum		L	LPC safe
18.	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount Anna Gainey		L	LPC safe
19.	Scarborough—Woburn Michael Coteau		L	LPC safe
20.	Halifax West Lena Metlege Diab		L	LPC safe
21.	Toronto—Danforth Julie Dabrusin		L	LPC safe
22.	Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs Marc Miller		L	LPC safe
23.	Brossard—Saint-Lambert Alexandra Mendes		L	LPC safe
24.	Vancouver Granville Taleeb Noormohamed		L	LPC safe
25.	Charlottetown Sean Casey		L	LPC safe
26.	Kingston and the Islands Mark Gerretsen		L	LPC safe
27.	Kanata Jenna Sudds		L	LPC safe
28.	Moncton—Dieppe Ginette Petitpas Taylor		L	LPC safe
29.	Hull—Aylmer Greg Fergus		L	LPC safe
30.	St. Boniface—St. Vital Ginette Lavack		L	LPC safe
31.	Winnipeg South Terry Duguid		L	LPC safe
32.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore James Maloney		L	LPC safe
33.	Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East Salma Zahid		L	LPC safe
34.	Gatineau Steven MacKinnon		L	LPC safe
35.	Ahuntsic-Cartierville Melanie Joly		L	LPC safe
36.	Fredericton—Oromocto David Myles		L	LPC safe
37.	Pierrefonds—Dollard Sameer Zuberi		L	LPC safe
38.	Sackville—Bedford—Preston Braedon Clark		L	LPC safe
39.	Ottawa West—Nepean Anita Vandenbeld		L	LPC safe
40.	Toronto Centre Evan Solomon		L	LPC safe
41.	University—Rosedale Danielle Martin		L	LPC safe
42.	Beauséjour Dominic LeBlanc		L	LPC safe
43.	Honoré-Mercier Eric St-Pierre		L	LPC safe
44.	Kings—Hants Kody Blois		L	LPC safe
45.	Winnipeg North Kevin Lamoureux		L	LPC safe
46.	West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country Patrick Weiler		L	LPC safe
47.	Burnaby North—Seymour Terry Beech		L	LPC safe
48.	Spadina—Harbourfront Chi Nguyen		L	LPC safe
49.	Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle Anju Dhillon		L	LPC safe
50.	North Vancouver—Capilano Braeden Caley		L	LPC safe
51.	Bourassa Abdelhaq Sari		L	LPC safe
52.	Waterloo Bardish Chagger		L	LPC safe
53.	Saint-Laurent Emmanuella Lambropoulos		L	LPC safe
54.	Vaudreuil Peter Schiefke		L	LPC safe
55.	Scarborough—Agincourt Jean Yip		L	LPC safe
56.	Etobicoke Centre Yvan Baker		L	LPC safe
57.	Saint John—Kennebecasis Wayne Long		L	LPC safe
58.	Willowdale Ali Ehsassi		L	LPC safe
59.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Iqra Khalid		L	LPC safe
60.	Burlington Karina Gould		L	LPC safe
61.	St. John’s East Joanne Thompson		L	LPC safe
62.	York South—Weston—Etobicoke Ahmed Hussen		L	LPC safe
63.	Ajax Jennifer McKelvie		L	LPC safe
64.	Humber River—Black Creek Judy Sgro		L	LPC safe
65.	Winnipeg West Doug Eyolfson		L	LPC safe
66.	Prescott—Russell—Cumberland Giovanna Mingarelli		L	LPC safe
67.	Etobicoke North John Zerucelli		L	LPC safe
68.	Halifax Shannon Miedema		L	LPC safe
69.	London West Arielle Kayabaga		L	LPC safe
70.	Beaches—East York Tanveer Shahnawaz		L	LPC safe
71.	Louis-Hébert Joel Lightbound		L	LPC safe
72.	Pickering—Brooklin Juanita Nathan		L	LPC safe
73.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas JP Danko		L	LPC safe
74.	Peterborough Emma Harrison		L	LPC safe
75.	Vancouver Centre Hedy Fry		L	LPC safe
76.	Alfred-Pellan Angelo Iacono		L	LPC safe
77.	Victoria Will Greaves		L	LPC safe
78.	Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi Sophie Chatel		L	LPC safe
79.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Patty Hajdu		L	LPC safe
80.	Vimy Annie Koutrakis		L	LPC safe
81.	London Centre Peter Fragiskatos		L	LPC safe
82.	Papineau Marjorie Michel		L	LPC safe
83.	St. Catharines Chris Bittle		L	LPC safe
84.	Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Gregor Robertson		L	LPC safe
85.	Outremont Rachel Bendayan		L	LPC safe
86.	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Carlos Leitao		L	LPC safe
87.	Guelph Dominique O’Rourke		L	LPC safe
88.	Sudbury Viviane Lapointe		L	LPC safe
89.	Sherbrooke Elisabeth Briere		L	LPC safe
90.	Laurier—Sainte-Marie Vacant			LPC safe
91.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Claude Guay		L	LPC safe
92.	Saint-Maurice—Champlain Francois-Philippe Champagne		L	LPC safe
93.	Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Stephanie McLean		L	LPC safe
94.	Laval—Les Îles Faycal El-Khoury		L	LPC safe
95.	Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne Sherry Romanado		L	LPC safe
96.	Brome—Missisquoi Louis Villeneuve		L	LPC safe
97.	Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Stephane Lauzon		L	LPC safe
98.	Compton—Stanstead Marianne Dandurand		L	LPC safe
99.	Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Marie-Gabrielle Menard		L	LPC safe
100.	Avalon Paul Connors		L	LPC safe
101.	Don Valley North Maggie Chi		L	LPC safe
102.	Markham—Thornhill Tim Hodgson		L	LPC safe
103.	Malpeque Heath MacDonald		L	LPC safe
104.	Mississauga—Malton Iqwinder Gaheer		L	LPC safe
105.	Mississauga Centre Fares Al Soud		L	LPC safe
106.	Whitby Ryan Turnbull		L	LPC safe
107.	Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville Nathalie Provost		L	LPC safe
108.	Sydney—Glace Bay Mike Kelloway		L	LPC safe
109.	Burlington North—Milton West Adam van Koeverden		L	LPC safe
110.	Davenport Julie Dzerowicz		L	LPC safe
111.	South Shore—St. Margarets Jessica Fancy-Landry		L	LPC safe
112.	Oakville West Sima Acan		L	LPC safe
113.	Madawaska—Restigouche Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault		L	LPC safe
114.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Charles Sousa		L	LPC safe
115.	Ottawa Centre Yasir Naqvi		L	LPC safe
116.	Mississauga—Streetsville Rechie Valdez		L	LPC safe
117.	Trois-Rivières Caroline Desrochers		L	LPC safe
118.	Oakville East Anita Anand		L	LPC safe
119.	Hamilton Mountain Lisa Hepfner		L	LPC safe
120.	Yukon Brendan Hanley		L	LPC safe
121.	Carleton Bruce Fanjoy		L	LPC safe
122.	Cardigan Kent McDonald		L	LPC safe
123.	Mount Royal Anthony Housefather		L	LPC safe
124.	Thérèse-De Blainville Madeleine Chenette		L	LPC safe
125.	Eglinton—Lawrence Vince Gasparro		L	LPC safe
126.	Markham—Stouffville Helena Jaczek		L	LPC safe
127.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Daniel Gobeil		L	LPC safe
128.	Northwest Territories Rebecca Alty		L	LPC likely
129.	Bay of Quinte Christopher Malette		L	LPC likely
130.	Delta Jill McKnight		L	LPC likely
131.	Rivière-des-Milles-Îles Linda Lapointe		L	LPC likely
132.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Peter Fonseca		L	LPC likely
133.	Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba		L	LPC likely
134.	Edmonton Centre Eleanor Olszewski		L	LPC likely
135.	Thunder Bay—Rainy River Marcus Powlowski		L	LPC likely
136.	Québec Centre Jean-Yves Duclos		L	LPC likely
137.	Burnaby Central Wade Wei Lin Chang		L	LPC likely
138.	Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma Terry Sheehan		L	LPC likely
139.	Nipissing—Timiskaming Pauline Rochefort		L	LPC likely
140.	Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Shafqat Ali		L	LPC likely
141.	Brampton East Maninder Sidhu		L	LPC likely
142.	Central Nova Sean Fraser		L	LPC likely
143.	Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish Jaime Battiste		L	LPC likely
144.	Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Kathy Borrelli		C	LPC likely
145.	Kitchener—Conestoga Tim Louis		L	LPC likely
146.	Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Ron McKinnon		L	LPC likely
147.	Port Moody—Coquitlam Zoe Royer		L	LPC likely
148.	Brampton South Sonia Sidhu		L	LPC likely
149.	South Surrey—White Rock Ernie Klassen		L	LPC likely
150.	Milton East—Halton Hills South Kristina Tesser Derksen		L	LPC likely
151.	Brampton North—Caledon Ruby Sahota		L	LPC likely
152.	Surrey Centre Randeep Sarai		L	LPC likely
153.	Surrey Newton Sukh Dhaliwal		L	LPC likely
154.	Brampton Centre Amandeep Sodhi		L	LPC likely
155.	Fleetwood—Port Kells Gurbux Saini		L	LPC likely
156.	La Prairie—Atateken Jacques Ramsay		L	LPC likely
157.	Beauport—Limoilou Steeve Lavoie		L	LPC likely
158.	Egmont Bobby Morrissey		L	LPC likely
159.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Matt Strauss		C	LPC likely
160.	Markham—Unionville Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]		L	LPC likely
161.	Richmond East—Steveston Parm Bains		L	LPC likely
162.	Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park Karim Bardeesy		L	LPC likely
163.	Northumberland—Clarke Philip Lawrence		C	LPC likely
164.	Kelowna Stephen Fuhr		L	LPC likely
165.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Mandy Gull		L	LPC likely
166.	Acadie—Annapolis Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]		L	LPC likely
167.	Niagara South Fred Davies		C	LPC likely
168.	Newmarket—Aurora Sandra Cobena		C	LPC likely
169.	Labrador Philip Earle		L	LPC likely
170.	Cumberland—Colchester Alana Hirtle		L	LPC likely
171.	Calgary Confederation Corey Hogan		L	LPC likely
172.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut Timothy Watchorn		L	LPC likely
173.	Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake Tony Baldinelli		C	LPC likely
174.	Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Marc Dalton		C	LPC likely
175.	Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Michael Barrett		C	LPC likely
176.	Simcoe North Adam Chambers		C	LPC likely
177.	Brampton West Amarjeet Gill		C	LPC likely
178.	Cambridge Connie Cody		C	LPC likely
179.	Cloverdale—Langley City Tamara Jansen		C	LPC likely
180.	Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Jonathan Rowe		C	LPC likely
181.	Miramichi—Grand Lake Mike Dawson		C	LPC leaning
182.	Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Andrew Lawton		C	LPC leaning
183.	Bowmanville—Oshawa North Jamil Jivani		C	LPC leaning
184.	Lanark—Frontenac Scott Reid		C	LPC leaning
185.	York Centre Roman Baber		C	LPC leaning
186.	Oshawa Rhonda Kirkland		C	LPC leaning
187.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ned Kuruc		C	LPC leaning
188.	Niagara West Dean Allison		C	LPC leaning
189.	Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Jim Belanger		C	LPC leaning
190.	Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay Helena Konanz		C	LPC leaning
191.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Natilien Joseph		L	LPC leaning
192.	Simcoe—Grey Terry Dowdall		C	LPC leaning
193.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Scott Aitchison		C	LPC leaning
194.	Calgary McKnight Dalwinder Gill		C	LPC leaning
195.	Wellington—Halton Hills North Michael Chong		C	LPC leaning
196.	Kildonan—St. Paul Raquel Dancho		C	LPC leaning
197.	Richmond Centre—Marpole Chak Au		C	LPC leaning
198.	Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Rebecca Chartrand		L	LPC leaning
199.	Richmond Hill South Vincent Neil Ho		C	LPC leaning
200.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Shipley		C	LPC leaning
201.	Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk Gaetan Malette		C	LPC leaning
202.	Hamilton Centre Aslam Rana		L	LPC leaning
203.	Edmonton Riverbend Matt Jeneroux [Elected as CPC]		L	LPC leaning
204.	Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Larry Brock		C	LPC leaning
205.	Nanaimo—Ladysmith Tamara Kronis		C	LPC leaning
206.	Huron—Bruce Ben Lobb		C	LPC leaning
207.	Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Dan Albas		C	LPC leaning
208.	Flamborough—Glanbrook—Brant North Dan Muys		C	LPC leaning
209.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Costas Menegakis		C	LPC leaning
210.	Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Scott Anderson		C	LPC leaning
211.	Perth—Wellington John Nater		C	LPC leaning
212.	Regina—Lewvan Warren Steinley		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
213.	New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Jake Sawatzky		L	Toss up LPC/NDP
214.	Regina—Wascana Michael Kram		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
215.	Terrebonne Tatiana Auguste		L	Toss up LPC/BQ
216.	Edmonton West Kelly McCauley		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
217.	Kenora—Kiiwetinoong Eric Melillo		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
218.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Alex Ruff		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
219.	Saskatoon—University Corey Tochor		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
220.	Langley Township—Fraser Heights Tako van Popta		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
221.	Long Range Mountains Carol Anstey		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
222.	Shefford Andreanne Larouche		B	Toss up LPC/BQ
223.	Nunavut Lori Idlout [Elected as NDP]		L	Toss up LPC/NDP
224.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Shelby Kramp-Neuman		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
225.	Calgary Centre Greg McLean		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
226.	Abbotsford—South Langley Sukhman Singh Gill		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
227.	Middlesex—London Lianne Rood		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
228.	Oxford Arpan Khanna		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
229.	York—Durham Jacob Mantle		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
230.	Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola Frank Caputo		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
231.	La Pointe-de-l’Île Mario Beaulieu		B	Toss up LPC/BQ
232.	Saskatoon South Kevin Waugh		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
233.	Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry Eric Duncan		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
234.	Repentigny Patrick Bonin		B	Toss up LPC/BQ
235.	Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Marilyn Gladu		L	Toss up LPC/CPC
236.	Edmonton Southeast Jagsharan Singh Mahal		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
237.	Central Newfoundland Clifford Small		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
238.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Jamie Schmale		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
239.	Saint John—St. Croix John Williamson		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
240.	Richmond—Arthabaska Éric Lefebvre		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
241.	Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Cheryl Gallant		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
242.	Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies Mel Arnold		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
243.	Fundy Royal Rob Moore		C	Toss up LPC/CPC
244.	Kitchener Centre Kelly DeRidder		C	Toss up LPC/GPC
245.	Mirabel Jean-Denis Garon		B	Toss up LPC/BQ
246.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Xavier Barsalou-Duval		B	Toss up LPC/BQ
247.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj Alexis Deschenes		B	Toss up LPC/BQ
248.	Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie Vacant			Toss up LPC/NDP
249.	Barrie South—Innisfil John Brassard		C	CPC leaning
250.	Edmonton Manning Ziad Aboultaif		C	CPC leaning
251.	Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Jeff Kibble		C	Toss up LPC/NDP
252.	Calgary Skyview Amanpreet Singh Gill		C	CPC leaning
253.	Edmonton Northwest Billy Morin		C	CPC leaning
254.	Edmonton Gateway Tim Uppal		C	CPC leaning
255.	Essex Chris Lewis		C	CPC leaning
256.	Haldimand—Norfolk Leslyn Lewis		C	CPC leaning
257.	Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Pierre Paul-Hus		C	CPC leaning
258.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Guglielmin		C	CPC leaning
259.	Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Gérard Deltell		C	CPC leaning
260.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Dave Epp		C	CPC leaning
261.	Calgary Crowfoot Pat Kelly		C	CPC leaning
262.	Laurentides—Labelle Marie-Helene Gaudreau		B	BQ leaning
263.	New Tecumseth—Gwillimbury Scot Davidson		C	CPC leaning
264.	Rimouski—La Matapédia Maxime Blanchette-Joncas		B	BQ leaning
265.	Saint-Jean Christine Normandin		B	BQ leaning
266.	Windsor West Harbinder Gill		C	NDP leaning
267.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton Vacant			BQ leaning
268.	Vancouver Kingsway Don Davies		N	NDP leaning
269.	Vancouver East Jenny Kwan		N	NDP leaning
270.	Berthier—Maskinongé Yves Perron		B	BQ leaning
271.	North Island—Powell River Aaron Gunn		C	NDP leaning
272.	London—Fanshawe Kurt Holman		C	NDP leaning
273.	Montmorency—Charlevoix Gabriel Hardy		C	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
274.	Calgary Nose Hill Michelle Rempel Garner		C	CPC leaning
275.	Calgary Signal Hill David McKenzie		C	CPC leaning
276.	Chilliwack—Hope Mark Strahl		C	CPC leaning
277.	Winnipeg Centre Leah Gazan		N	NDP leaning
278.	Dufferin—Caledon Kyle Seeback		C	CPC leaning
279.	Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Brad Vis		C	CPC likely
280.	King—Vaughan Anna Roberts		C	CPC likely
281.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon Claude DeBellefeuille		B	BQ likely
282.	Rivière-du-Nord Rheal Fortin		B	BQ likely
283.	Beloeil—Chambly Yves-Francois Blanchet		B	BQ likely
284.	Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata Bernard Genereux		C	CPC likely
285.	Tobique—Mactaquac Richard Bragdon		C	CPC likely
286.	Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies Rob Morrison		C	CPC likely
287.	Calgary Heritage Shuv Majumdar		C	CPC likely
288.	Lévis—Lotbinière Jacques Gourde		C	CPC likely
289.	Drummond Martin Champoux		B	BQ likely
290.	Calgary East Jasraj Singh Hallan		C	CPC likely
291.	Saanich—Gulf Islands Elizabeth May		G	GPC likely
292.	Jonquière Mario Simard		B	BQ likely
293.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan Marilene Gill		B	BQ likely
294.	Saskatoon West Brad Redekopp		C	CPC likely
295.	Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Dominique Vien		C	CPC likely
296.	Joliette—Manawan Gabriel Ste-Marie		B	BQ likely
297.	Lethbridge Rachael Thomas		C	CPC likely
298.	Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman James Bezan		C	CPC likely
299.	Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier Joel Godin		C	CPC likely
300.	Courtenay—Alberni Gord Johns		N	NDP likely
301.	Thornhill Melissa Lantsman		C	CPC likely
302.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak Louis Plamondon		B	BQ likely
303.	Lac-Saint-Jean Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe		B	BQ likely
304.	Montcalm Luc Theriault		B	BQ likely
305.	Cariboo—Prince George Todd Doherty		C	CPC likely
306.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue Sebastien Lemire		B	BQ likely
307.	Calgary Midnapore Stephanie Kusie		C	CPC likely
308.	St. Albert—Sturgeon River Michael Cooper		C	CPC safe
309.	Regina—Qu’Appelle Andrew Scheer		C	CPC safe
310.	Elmwood—Transcona Colin Reynolds		C	NDP leaning
311.	Brandon—Souris Grant Jackson		C	CPC safe
312.	Calgary Shepard Tom Kmiec		C	CPC safe
313.	Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Garnett Genuis		C	CPC safe
314.	Provencher Ted Falk		C	CPC safe