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Liberal Party of Canada

Latest update: November 8, 2026
LeaderMark Carney
National popular vote in 202543.8%
Current vote projection47.0% ± 4.3%
Current number of MPs174
Current seat projection245 [202-276]

Infolettre Qc125

Chargement…

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 8, 2026 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% Majority: 172 seats Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada 10.3 seat/% 245 [202-276] 47% ± 4% 2019 2021 2025
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Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ LPC 245 [202-276] November 8, 2026 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 7/7 PEI 4/4 NS 11/11 NB 9/10 QC 50/78 ON 105/122 MB 7/14 SK 5/14 AB 12/37 BC 32/43 YT NWT NU
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Projected gains and losses compared to 2025 results.

Vote projection | November 8, 2026

37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 42.7% ▼ 2025 43.8% 47.0% ± 4.3% ▼ Max. 51.3% ▼ Probabilities % LPC November 8, 2026
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Seat projection | November 8, 2026

155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2021 169 seats Majority 172 seats Min. 202 ▼ 245 ▼ Max. 276 ▼ Probabilities % LPC November 8, 2026
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List of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Districts and MPs Current party Projection
1.
Francis Scarpaleggia
L LPC safe
2.
Serge Cormier
L LPC safe
3.
Marie-France Lalonde
L LPC safe
4.
Patricia Lattanzio
L LPC safe
5.
Tom Osborne
L LPC safe
6. L LPC safe
7.
Rob Oliphant
L LPC safe
8.
Wade Grant
L LPC safe
9.
Shaun Chen
L LPC safe
10. L LPC safe
11. L LPC safe
12.
Darren Fisher
L LPC safe
13.
Mark Carney
L LPC safe
14. L LPC safe
15.
Alexandra Mendes
L LPC safe
16.
Leslie Church
L LPC safe
17.
Taleeb Noormohamed
L LPC safe
18. L LPC safe
19.
Greg Fergus
L LPC safe
20.
Lena Metlege Diab
L LPC safe
21.
David McGuinty
L LPC safe
22.
Sean Casey
L LPC safe
23.
Steven MacKinnon
L LPC safe
24.
Julie Dabrusin
L LPC safe
25.
Sameer Zuberi
L LPC safe
26.
Melanie Joly
L LPC safe
27.
Ginette Petitpas Taylor
L LPC safe
28. L LPC safe
29.
Terry Duguid
L LPC safe
30.
Michael Coteau
L LPC safe
31.
Ginette Lavack
L LPC safe
32.
Eric St-Pierre
L LPC safe
33.
Mark Gerretsen
L LPC safe
34. L LPC safe
35. L LPC safe
36.
Jenna Sudds
L LPC safe
37. L LPC safe
38. L LPC safe
39.
Dominic LeBlanc
L LPC safe
40. L LPC safe
41.
Evan Solomon
L LPC safe
42.
Emmanuella Lambropoulos
L LPC safe
43.
Danielle Martin
L LPC safe
44.
James Maloney
L LPC safe
45. L LPC safe
46.
Abdelhaq Sari
L LPC safe
47.
Anita Vandenbeld
L LPC safe
48.
Kody Blois
L LPC safe
49. L LPC safe
50.
Kevin Lamoureux
L LPC safe
51.
Peter Schiefke
L LPC safe
52. L LPC safe
53. L LPC safe
54.
Bardish Chagger
L LPC safe
55.
Joanne Thompson
L LPC safe
56.
Paul Connors
L LPC safe
57.
Doug Eyolfson
L LPC safe
58.
Joel Lightbound
L LPC safe
59. L LPC safe
60.
Shannon Miedema
L LPC safe
61.
Yvan Baker
L LPC safe
62. L LPC safe
63. L LPC safe
64.
Will Greaves
L LPC safe
65.
Karina Gould
L LPC safe
66.
Ali Ehsassi
L LPC safe
67. L LPC safe
68.
Sophie Chatel
L LPC safe
69.
Jennifer McKelvie
L LPC safe
70.
Hedy Fry
L LPC safe
71.
Angelo Iacono
L LPC safe
72.
Maggie Chi
L LPC safe
73.
Tanveer Shahnawaz
L LPC safe
74.
Giovanna Mingarelli
L LPC safe
75.
Arielle Kayabaga
L LPC safe
76.
Mike Kelloway
L LPC safe
77.
Annie Koutrakis
L LPC safe
78. L LPC safe
79.
Emma Harrison
L LPC safe
80.
Marjorie Michel
L LPC safe
81.
Rachel Bendayan
L LPC safe
82. L LPC safe
83. L LPC safe
84.
Carlos Leitao
L LPC safe
85.
Peter Fragiskatos
L LPC safe
86.
Elisabeth Briere
L LPC safe
87. LPC safe
88. L LPC safe
89.
Chris Bittle
L LPC safe
90.
Francois-Philippe Champagne
L LPC safe
91.
Dominique O’Rourke
L LPC safe
92.
Faycal El-Khoury
L LPC safe
93.
Stephanie McLean
L LPC safe
94.
Sherry Romanado
L LPC safe
95.
Louis Villeneuve
L LPC safe
96. L LPC safe
97.
Marianne Dandurand
L LPC safe
98.
Eleanor Olszewski
L LPC safe
99. L LPC safe
100.
Heath MacDonald
L LPC safe
101.
Tim Hodgson
L LPC safe
102.
Juanita Nathan
L LPC safe
103.
Fares Al Soud
L LPC safe
104.
Marie-Gabrielle Menard
L LPC safe
105.
John Zerucelli
L LPC safe
106.
Anthony Housefather
L LPC safe
107.
Viviane Lapointe
L LPC safe
108.
Jessica Fancy-Landry
L LPC safe
109. L LPC safe
110.
Julie Dzerowicz
L LPC safe
111.
Kent McDonald
L LPC safe
112.
Iqwinder Gaheer
L LPC safe
113.
Jill McKnight
L LPC safe
114.
Guillaume Deschenes-Theriault
L LPC safe
115.
Charles Sousa
L LPC safe
116.
Brendan Hanley
L LPC safe
117.
Yasir Naqvi
L LPC safe
118.
Caroline Desrochers
L LPC safe
119.
Rebecca Alty
L LPC safe
120.
Madeleine Chenette
L LPC safe
121.
Ryan Turnbull
L LPC safe
122.
Adam van Koeverden
L LPC safe
123.
Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba
L LPC safe
124.
Sima Acan
L LPC safe
125.
Wade Wei Lin Chang
L LPC safe
126.
Linda Lapointe
L LPC safe
127.
Daniel Gobeil
L LPC safe
128. L LPC safe
129.
Sean Fraser
L LPC safe
130.
Jean-Yves Duclos
L LPC safe
131.
Anita Anand
L LPC likely
132.
Bruce Fanjoy
L LPC likely
133.
Lisa Hepfner
L LPC likely
134.
Helena Jaczek
L LPC likely
135.
Corey Hogan
L LPC likely
136.
Christopher Malette
L LPC likely
137.
Vince Gasparro
L LPC likely
138. L LPC likely
139. L LPC likely
140.
Marcus Powlowski
L LPC likely
141. L LPC likely
142. L LPC likely
143. L LPC likely
144.
Randeep Sarai
L LPC likely
145. L LPC likely
146.
Sukh Dhaliwal
L LPC likely
147.
Maninder Sidhu
L LPC likely
148.
Gurbux Saini
L LPC likely
149.
Pauline Rochefort
L LPC likely
150. L LPC likely
151.
Jacques Ramsay
L LPC likely
152.
Bobby Morrissey
L LPC likely
153.
Steeve Lavoie
L LPC likely
154. C LPC likely
155. L LPC likely
156.
Stephen Fuhr
L LPC likely
157. L LPC likely
158.
Chris d’Entremont [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
159.
Sonia Sidhu
L LPC likely
160. L LPC likely
161.
Kristina Tesser Derksen
L LPC likely
162. L LPC likely
163. L LPC likely
164. L LPC likely
165.
Amandeep Sodhi
L LPC likely
166.
Timothy Watchorn
L LPC likely
167.
Philip Earle
L LPC likely
168.
Dalwinder Gill
C LPC likely
169. C LPC likely
170. C LPC likely
171.
Michael Ma [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
172.
Matt Jeneroux [Elected as CPC]
L LPC likely
173. C LPC likely
174. C LPC likely
175.
Philip Lawrence
C LPC likely
176.
Fred Davies
C LPC likely
177.
Sandra Cobena
C LPC likely
178. C LPC likely
179.
Kelly McCauley
C LPC likely
180. C LPC likely
181. C LPC likely
182.
Greg McLean
C LPC likely
183.
Natilien Joseph
L LPC likely
184. C LPC likely
185.
Adam Chambers
C LPC leaning
186. C LPC leaning
187.
Raquel Dancho
C LPC leaning
188.
Amarjeet Gill
C LPC leaning
189.
Connie Cody
C LPC leaning
190. C LPC leaning
191.
Tamara Kronis
C LPC leaning
192. C LPC leaning
193.
Scott Reid
C LPC leaning
194. L LPC leaning
195. C LPC leaning
196.
Roman Baber
C LPC leaning
197. C LPC leaning
198.
Aslam Rana
L LPC leaning
199.
Jagsharan Singh Mahal
C LPC leaning
200.
Rhonda Kirkland
C LPC leaning
201. C LPC leaning
202.
Dean Allison
C LPC leaning
203. C LPC leaning
204.
Warren Steinley
C LPC leaning
205.
Rebecca Chartrand
L LPC leaning
206. C LPC leaning
207.
Tatiana Auguste
L LPC leaning
208.
Michael Kram
C LPC leaning
209.
Scott Aitchison
C LPC leaning
210.
Corey Tochor
C LPC leaning
211.
Terry Dowdall
C LPC leaning
212.
Carol Anstey
C LPC leaning
213. C LPC leaning
214.
Andreanne Larouche
B LPC leaning
215. C LPC leaning
216.
Vincent Neil Ho
C LPC leaning
217. C LPC leaning
218.
Lori Idlout [Elected as NDP]
L LPC leaning
219.
Sukhman Singh Gill
C LPC leaning
220.
Ziad Aboultaif
C Toss up LPC/CPC
221. C Toss up LPC/CPC
222.
Billy Morin
C Toss up LPC/CPC
223.
Ben Lobb
C Toss up LPC/CPC
224. C Toss up LPC/CPC
225.
Amanpreet Singh Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC
226. C Toss up LPC/CPC
227.
Tim Uppal
C Toss up LPC/CPC
228.
Éric Lefebvre
C Toss up LPC/CPC
229. C Toss up LPC/CPC
230.
John Nater
C Toss up LPC/CPC
231.
Mario Beaulieu
B Toss up LPC/BQ
232.
Eric Melillo
C Toss up LPC/CPC
233.
Kevin Waugh
C Toss up LPC/CPC
234. Toss up LPC/NDP
235. C Toss up LPC/CPC
236.
Patrick Bonin
B Toss up LPC/BQ
237.
Pat Kelly
C Toss up LPC/CPC
238.
Clifford Small
C Toss up LPC/CPC
239. C Toss up LPC/CPC
240.
John Williamson
C Toss up LPC/CPC
241. C Toss up LPC/CPC
242.
Rob Moore
C Toss up LPC/CPC
243. C Toss up LPC/NDP
244.
Lianne Rood
C Toss up LPC/CPC
245.
Michelle Rempel Garner
C Toss up LPC/CPC
246. B Toss up LPC/BQ
247.
Arpan Khanna
C Toss up LPC/CPC
248.
Jean-Denis Garon
B Toss up LPC/BQ
249. B Toss up LPC/BQ
250.
Harbinder Gill
C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
251. C Toss up LPC/CPC
252.
Kurt Holman
C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
253.
David McKenzie
C Toss up LPC/CPC
254. C Toss up LPC/CPC
255.
Jacob Mantle
C Toss up LPC/CPC
256.
Kelly DeRidder
C Toss up LPC/CPC/GPC
257. C Toss up LPC/CPC
258.
Don Davies
N Toss up LPC/NDP
259. C Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
260. L Toss up LPC/CPC
261.
Jenny Kwan
N Toss up LPC/NDP
262. C Toss up LPC/CPC
263. C Toss up LPC/CPC
264.
Marie-Helene Gaudreau
B BQ leaning
265.
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas
B BQ leaning
266.
Gabriel Hardy
C Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ
267.
Christine Normandin
B BQ leaning
268.
Shuv Majumdar
C CPC leaning
269. BQ leaning
270. B BQ leaning
271.
John Brassard
C CPC leaning
272.
Mark Strahl
C CPC leaning
273.
Leah Gazan
N NDP leaning
274. C CPC leaning
275.
Jasraj Singh Hallan
C CPC leaning
276.
Chris Lewis
C CPC leaning
277. B BQ leaning
278. C CPC leaning
279.
Leslyn Lewis
C CPC leaning
280.
Michael Guglielmin
C CPC leaning
281.
Rheal Fortin
B BQ leaning
282. C CPC leaning
283.
Rachael Thomas
C CPC leaning
284. C CPC leaning
285.
Jacques Gourde
C CPC leaning
286.
Yves-Francois Blanchet
B BQ leaning
287.
Richard Bragdon
C CPC leaning
288. C CPC likely
289.
Elizabeth May
G GPC likely
290. C CPC likely
291.
Martin Champoux
B BQ likely
292.
Kyle Seeback
C CPC likely
293.
Anna Roberts
C CPC likely
294.
Mario Simard
B BQ likely
295. B BQ likely
296. C CPC likely
297.
Brad Redekopp
C CPC likely
298.
Gord Johns
N NDP likely
299.
Gabriel Ste-Marie
B BQ likely
300. C CPC likely
301. C CPC likely
302.
Stephanie Kusie
C CPC likely
303. B BQ likely
304.
Luc Theriault
B BQ likely
305.
Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe
B BQ likely
306. C CPC likely
307.
Kerry Diotte
C Toss up CPC/NDP
308.
Sebastien Lemire
B BQ likely
309.
Tom Kmiec
C CPC likely
310. C CPC likely
311.
Melissa Lantsman
C CPC safe
312.
Colin Reynolds
C NDP leaning
313.
Andrew Scheer
C CPC safe
314.
Grant Jackson
C CPC safe
315.
William Stevenson
C CPC safe
316.
Ted Falk
C CPC safe