🍁338Canada Federal Projections
338Canada provides statistical projections of federal and provincial elections in Canada, combining opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data to estimate both popular vote and seat outcomes.
This page shows the current state of federal's political landscape, including recent polling, projected vote shares, and likely seat distributions if an election were held today.
Outside of campaigns, federal projections are updated every Sunday.
338Canada federal projection
Latest update: January 25, 2026
Methodology note.
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Methodology note.
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today.
The brackets indicate the current range from worst- to best-case outcomes. Values near the centre of the distribution are more likely than the extremes, as the results follow Gaussian-like (bell-curve) distributions.
Does it work? See 338Canada’s full record here.
Methodology note.
The odds of winning and of various outcomes are those that would apply if a general election were held today.
They are calculated using the 338Canada Monte Carlo–type model, which runs thousands of simulated elections based on projected vote shares by riding, past results, and demographic data.
Projection of potential coalitions
Note: Not all party combinations are shown on the chart.
Note: These are the probabilities of reaching 172 seats in a coalition by necessity.
For example: the probability of CPC+BQ is the one where the CPC needs the BQ to reach this threshold.