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Electoral District Projections — British Columbia

Latest update: March 14, 2026

The Road to 47 Seats

Less likely More likely Majority: 47 seats Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe V-STR North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe NVLO Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe V-HAS Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe V-SG Vancouver-West End NDP safe V-WE Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe V-REN Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP safe V-LM Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe V-KEN New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP safe NWCQ Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe ESQC Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe VI-SL Burnaby-New Westminster NDP safe BU-NW Vancouver-Point Grey NDP safe V-PG Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe OAKB North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP safe NCHG Saanich South NDP likely SAAS Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely V-FRV Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP likely NAGA North Vancouver-Seymour NDP likely NVSM Port Coquitlam NDP likely POCQ Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP likely POWR Langford-Highlands NDP likely LFHL Burnaby Centre NDP likely BU-C Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP likely NALA Kootenay-Monashee NDP likely KOOM Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP likely CQMA Delta North NDP likely DELN Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP likely PMBQ Burnaby East NDP likely BU-E Burnaby North NDP likely BU-N Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows NDP likely MAPP Mid Island-Pacific Rim NDP likely MIPR Kootenay Central NDP leaning KOOC Surrey-Newton NDP leaning SU-NW Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP leaning LADY Burnaby South-Metrotown NDP leaning BU-SM Vancouver-Yaletown NDP leaning V-YAL Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP leaning VI-BH Surrey-Fleetwood Toss up SU-FL Cowichan Valley Toss up COWV Vancouver-Langara Toss up V-LAN Richmond-Steveston Toss up RCHS Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Toss up CQBM Vernon-Lumby Toss up VERL Surrey City Centre Toss up SU-CC Surrey-Guildford Toss up SU-GF Kelowna Centre Toss up KWCE Maple Ridge East Toss up MAPE Juan de Fuca-Malahat Toss up JUAN Surrey-Panorama Toss up SU-PA Courtenay-Comox Toss up COCO Penticton-Summerland Toss up PENT Surrey-Serpentine River Toss up SU-SR North Island Toss up NOIS Surrey-Cloverdale Toss up SU-CL Columbia River-Revelstoke CPBC leaning CORR Langley-Willowbrook CPBC leaning LGWI Langley-Walnut Grove CPBC leaning LGWG Skeena CPBC leaning SKEE Boundary-Similkameen CPBC leaning BOMI Richmond-Queensborough CPBC leaning RCHQ Surrey North CPBC leaning SU-N Surrey-White Rock CPBC leaning SU-WR Vancouver-Quilchena CPBC likely V-QUI Kamloops Centre CPBC likely KAMC Chilliwack-Cultus Lake CPBC likely CHIC Delta South CPBC likely DELS Abbotsford-Mission CPBC likely ABBM Bulkley Valley-Stikine CPBC likely BULK Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream CPBC likely KWLC Richmond Centre CPBC likely RCHC Saanich North and the Islands GRN likely SAAN Surrey South CPBC likely SU-S Chilliwack North CPBC likely CHIN Fraser-Nicola CPBC likely FRNI Prince George-Valemount CPBC safe PGVA Abbotsford West CPBC safe ABBW Kelowna-Mission CPBC safe KWMI Richmond-Bridgeport CPBC safe RCHB Abbotsford South CPBC safe ABBS Salmon Arm-Shuswap CPBC safe SSHU West Vancouver-Capilano CPBC safe WV-CA Langley-Abbotsford CPBC safe LGAB Kamloops-North Thompson CPBC safe KAMN West Kelowna-Peachland CPBC safe WKWP Cariboo-Chilcotin CPBC safe CARI Prince George-Mackenzie CPBC safe PGMA Kootenay-Rockies CPBC safe KOOR Nechako Lakes CPBC safe NECH West Vancouver-Sea to Sky GRN likely WV-SS Prince George-North Cariboo CPBC safe PGNC Peace River South CPBC safe PR-S Peace River North CPBC safe PR-N V-STR NVLO V-HAS V-SG V-WE V-REN V-LM V-KEN NWCQ ESQC VI-SL BU-NW V-PG OAKB NCHG SAAS V-FRV NAGA NVSM POCQ POWR LFHL BU-C NALA KOOM CQMA DELN PMBQ BU-E BU-N MAPP MIPR KOOC SU-NW LADY BU-SM V-YAL VI-BH SU-FL COWV V-LAN RCHS CQBM VERL SU-CC SU-GF KWCE MAPE JUAN SU-PA COCO PENT SU-SR NOIS SU-CL CORR LGWI LGWG SKEE BOMI RCHQ SU-N SU-WR V-QUI KAMC CHIC DELS ABBM BULK KWLC RCHC SAAN SU-S CHIN FRNI PGVA ABBW KWMI RCHB ABBS SSHU WV-CA LGAB KAMN WKWP CARI PGMA KOOR NECH WV-SS PGNC PR-S PR-N 338Canada British Columbia Projection Latest update: March 14, 2026 ▲46 CPBC [31-58] NDP 45▼ [33-60]

Electoral districts
Current party
 Projection
Abbotsford South
Bruce Banman
 C CPBC safe
Abbotsford West
Korky Neufeld
 C CPBC safe
Abbotsford-Mission
Reann Gasper
 C CPBC likely
Boundary-Similkameen
Donegal Wilson
 C CPBC leaning
Bulkley Valley-Stikine
Sharon L. Hartwell
 C CPBC likely
Burnaby Centre
Anne Kang
 N NDP likely
Burnaby East
Reah Arora
 N NDP likely
Burnaby North
Janet Routledge
 N NDP likely
Burnaby South-Metrotown
Paul Choi
 N NDP leaning
Burnaby-New Westminster
Raj Chouhan
 N NDP safe
Cariboo-Chilcotin
Lorne Doerkson
 C CPBC safe
Chilliwack North
Heather Maahs
 C CPBC likely
Chilliwack-Cultus Lake
A’aliya Warbus
 C CPBC likely
Columbia River-Revelstoke
Scott McInnis
 C CPBC leaning
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
Jodie Wickens
 N Toss up
Coquitlam-Maillardville
Jennifer Blatherwick
 N NDP likely
Courtenay-Comox
Brennan Day
 C Toss up
Cowichan Valley
Debra Toporowski
 N Toss up
Delta North
Ravi Kahlon
 N NDP likely
Delta South
Ian Paton
 C CPBC likely
Esquimalt-Colwood
Darlene Rotchford
 N NDP safe
Fraser-Nicola
Tony Luck
 C CPBC likely
Juan de Fuca-Malahat
Dana Lajeunesse
 N Toss up
Kamloops Centre
Peter Milobar
 C CPBC likely
Kamloops-North Thompson
Ward Stamer
 C CPBC safe
Kelowna Centre
Kristina Loewen
 C Toss up
Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream
Tara Armstrong [Elected with CP]
 I CPBC likely
Kelowna-Mission
Gavin Dew
 C CPBC safe
Kootenay Central
Brittny Anderson
 N NDP leaning
Kootenay-Monashee
Steve Morissette
 N NDP likely
Kootenay-Rockies
Pete Davis
 C CPBC safe
Ladysmith-Oceanside
Stephanie Higginson
 N NDP leaning
Langford-Highlands
Ravi Parmar
 N NDP likely
Langley-Abbotsford
Harman Bhangu
 C CPBC safe
Langley-Walnut Grove
Misty Van Popta
 C CPBC leaning
Langley-Willowbrook
Jody Toor
 C CPBC leaning
Maple Ridge East
Lawrence Mok
 C Toss up
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Lisa Beare
 N NDP likely
Mid Island-Pacific Rim
Josie Osborne
 N NDP likely
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island
Sheila Malcolmson
 N NDP likely
Nanaimo-Lantzville
George Anderson
 N NDP likely
Nechako Lakes
John Rustad
 C CPBC safe
New Westminster-Coquitlam
Jennifer Whiteside
 N NDP safe
North Coast-Haida Gwaii
Tamara Davidson
 N NDP safe
North Island
Anna Kindy
 C Toss up
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Bowinn Ma
 N NDP safe
North Vancouver-Seymour
Susie Chant
 N NDP likely
Oak Bay-Gordon Head
Diana Gibson
 N NDP safe
Peace River North
Jordan Kealy [Elected with CP]
 I CPBC safe
Peace River South
Larry Neufeld
 C CPBC safe
Penticton-Summerland
Amelia Boultbee
 C Toss up
Port Coquitlam
Mike Farnworth
 N NDP likely
Port Moody-Burquitlam
Rick Glumac
 N NDP likely
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
Randene Neill
 N NDP likely
Prince George-Mackenzie
Kiel Giddens
 C CPBC safe
Prince George-North Cariboo
Sheldon Clare
 C CPBC safe
Prince George-Valemount
Rosalyn Bird
 C CPBC safe
Richmond Centre
Hon Chan
 C CPBC likely
Richmond-Bridgeport
Teresa Wat
 C CPBC safe
Richmond-Queensborough
Steve Kooner
 C CPBC leaning
Richmond-Steveston
Kelly Greene
 N Toss up
Saanich North and the Islands
Rob Botterell
 G GRN likely
Saanich South
Lana Popham
 N NDP likely
Salmon Arm-Shuswap
David L. Williams
 C CPBC safe
Skeena
Claire Rattée
 C CPBC leaning
Surrey City Centre
Amna Shah
 N Toss up
Surrey North
Mandeep Dhaliwal
 C CPBC leaning
Surrey South
Brent Chapman
 C CPBC likely
Surrey-Cloverdale
Elenore Sturko [Elected with CP]
 I Toss up
Surrey-Fleetwood
Jagrup Brar
 N Toss up
Surrey-Guildford
Garry Begg
 N Toss up
Surrey-Newton
Jessie Sunner
 N NDP leaning
Surrey-Panorama
Bryan Tepper
 C Toss up
Surrey-Serpentine River
Linda Hepner
 C Toss up
Surrey-White Rock
Trevor Halford
 C CPBC leaning
Vancouver-Fraserview
George Chow
 N NDP likely
Vancouver-Hastings
Niki Sharma
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Kensington
Mable Elmore
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Langara
Sunita Dhir
 N Toss up
Vancouver-Little Mountain
Christine Boyle
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Point Grey
David Eby
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Quilchena
Dallas Brodie [Elected with CP]
 O CPBC likely
Vancouver-Renfrew
Adrian Dix
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-South Granville
Brenda Bailey
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Strathcona
Joan Phillip
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-West End
Spencer Chandra Herbert
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Yaletown
Terry Yung
 N NDP leaning
Vernon-Lumby
Harwinder Sandhu
 N Toss up
Victoria-Beacon Hill
Grace Lore
 N NDP leaning
Victoria-Swan Lake
Nina Krieger
 N NDP safe
West Kelowna-Peachland
Macklin McCall
 C CPBC safe
West Vancouver-Capilano
Lynne Block
 C CPBC safe
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
Jeremy Valeriote
 G GRN likely