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Electoral District Projections — British Columbia

Latest update: October 15, 2026

The Road to 47 Seats

Less likely More likely Majority: 47 seats Vancouver-Strathcona NDP safe V-STR Vancouver-West End NDP safe V-WE Vancouver-Renfrew NDP safe V-REN Vancouver-Hastings NDP safe V-HAS Vancouver-South Granville NDP safe V-SG New Westminster-Coquitlam NDP safe NWCQ Victoria-Swan Lake NDP safe VI-SL Esquimalt-Colwood NDP safe ESQC North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP safe NVLO Vancouver-Little Mountain NDP safe V-LM Vancouver-Kensington NDP safe V-KEN North Coast-Haida Gwaii NDP safe NCHG Oak Bay-Gordon Head NDP safe OAKB Vancouver-Point Grey NDP likely V-PG Burnaby-New Westminster NDP likely BU-NW Vancouver-Fraserview NDP likely V-FRV Saanich South NDP likely SAAS Langford-Highlands NDP likely LFHL North Vancouver-Seymour NDP likely NVSM Nanaimo-Gabriola Island NDP likely NAGA Port Coquitlam NDP leaning POCQ Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP leaning VI-BH Powell River-Sunshine Coast NDP leaning POWR Coquitlam-Maillardville NDP leaning CQMA Nanaimo-Lantzville NDP leaning NALA Burnaby Centre NDP leaning BU-C Port Moody-Burquitlam NDP leaning PMBQ Kootenay-Monashee NDP leaning KOOM Burnaby East NDP leaning BU-E Burnaby North NDP leaning BU-N Ladysmith-Oceanside NDP leaning LADY Delta North NDP leaning DELN Mid Island-Pacific Rim Toss up MIPR Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows Toss up MAPP Kootenay Central Toss up KOOC Surrey-Newton Toss up SU-NW Cowichan Valley Toss up COWV Burnaby South-Metrotown Toss up BU-SM Vancouver-Yaletown Toss up V-YAL Juan de Fuca-Malahat Toss up JUAN Surrey-Fleetwood Toss up SU-FL Courtenay-Comox Toss up COCO Vernon-Lumby Toss up VERL Vancouver-Langara CPBC leaning V-LAN Richmond-Steveston CPBC leaning RCHS North Island CPBC leaning NOIS Surrey City Centre CPBC leaning SU-CC Coquitlam-Burke Mountain CPBC leaning CQBM Kelowna Centre CPBC leaning KWCE Surrey-Guildford CPBC leaning SU-GF Penticton-Summerland CPBC leaning PENT Maple Ridge East CPBC leaning MAPE Surrey-Panorama CPBC leaning SU-PA Surrey-Serpentine River CPBC leaning SU-SR Columbia River-Revelstoke CPBC likely CORR Surrey-Cloverdale CPBC likely SU-CL Langley-Willowbrook CPBC likely LGWI Langley-Walnut Grove CPBC likely LGWG Saanich North and the Islands GRN likely SAAN Boundary-Similkameen CPBC likely BOMI Vancouver-Quilchena CPBC likely V-QUI Surrey North CPBC likely SU-N Skeena CPBC likely SKEE Richmond-Queensborough CPBC likely RCHQ Surrey-White Rock CPBC likely SU-WR Kamloops Centre CPBC likely KAMC Abbotsford-Mission CPBC likely ABBM Chilliwack-Cultus Lake CPBC likely CHIC Delta South CPBC likely DELS Surrey South CPBC likely SU-S Bulkley Valley-Stikine CPBC likely BULK Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream CPBC likely KWLC Richmond Centre CPBC safe RCHC Chilliwack North CPBC safe CHIN Fraser-Nicola CPBC safe FRNI Prince George-Valemount CPBC safe PGVA Abbotsford West CPBC safe ABBW Richmond-Bridgeport CPBC safe RCHB Abbotsford South CPBC safe ABBS Kelowna-Mission CPBC safe KWMI West Kelowna-Peachland CPBC safe WKWP Kamloops-North Thompson CPBC safe KAMN Langley-Abbotsford CPBC safe LGAB West Vancouver-Capilano CPBC safe WV-CA Salmon Arm-Shuswap CPBC safe SSHU Cariboo-Chilcotin CPBC safe CARI Kootenay-Rockies CPBC safe KOOR Prince George-Mackenzie CPBC safe PGMA Nechako Lakes CPBC safe NECH West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Toss up WV-SS Prince George-North Cariboo CPBC safe PGNC Peace River South CPBC safe PR-S Peace River North CPBC safe PR-N V-STR V-WE V-REN V-HAS V-SG NWCQ VI-SL ESQC NVLO V-LM V-KEN NCHG OAKB V-PG BU-NW V-FRV SAAS LFHL NVSM NAGA POCQ VI-BH POWR CQMA NALA BU-C PMBQ KOOM BU-E BU-N LADY DELN MIPR MAPP KOOC SU-NW COWV BU-SM V-YAL JUAN SU-FL COCO VERL V-LAN RCHS NOIS SU-CC CQBM KWCE SU-GF PENT MAPE SU-PA SU-SR CORR SU-CL LGWI LGWG SAAN BOMI V-QUI SU-N SKEE RCHQ SU-WR KAMC ABBM CHIC DELS SU-S BULK KWLC RCHC CHIN FRNI PGVA ABBW RCHB ABBS KWMI WKWP KAMN LGAB WV-CA SSHU CARI KOOR PGMA NECH WV-SS PGNC PR-S PR-N 338Canada British Columbia Projection Latest update: October 15, 2026 52 CPBC [40-67] NDP 39 [24-52]

Electoral districts
Current party
 Projection
Abbotsford South
Bruce Banman
 I CPBC safe
Abbotsford West
Korky Neufeld
 C CPBC safe
Abbotsford-Mission
Vacant
 CPBC likely
Boundary-Similkameen
Donegal Wilson
 I CPBC likely
Bulkley Valley-Stikine
Sharon L. Hartwell
 C CPBC likely
Burnaby Centre
Anne Kang
 N NDP leaning
Burnaby East
Reah Arora
 N NDP leaning
Burnaby North
Janet Routledge
 N NDP leaning
Burnaby South-Metrotown
Paul Choi
 N Toss up
Burnaby-New Westminster
Raj Chouhan
 N NDP likely
Cariboo-Chilcotin
Lorne Doerkson
 C CPBC safe
Chilliwack North
Heather Maahs
 C CPBC safe
Chilliwack-Cultus Lake
A’aliya Warbus
 I CPBC likely
Columbia River-Revelstoke
Scott McInnis
 C CPBC likely
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
Jodie Wickens
 N CPBC leaning
Coquitlam-Maillardville
Jennifer Blatherwick
 N NDP leaning
Courtenay-Comox
Brennan Day
 I Toss up
Cowichan Valley
Debra Toporowski
 N Toss up
Delta North
Ravi Kahlon
 N NDP leaning
Delta South
Ian Paton
 I CPBC likely
Esquimalt-Colwood
Darlene Rotchford
 N NDP safe
Fraser-Nicola
Tony Luck
 C CPBC safe
Juan de Fuca-Malahat
Dana Lajeunesse
 N Toss up
Kamloops Centre
Peter Milobar
 C CPBC likely
Kamloops-North Thompson
Ward Stamer
 C CPBC safe
Kelowna Centre
Kristina Loewen
 C CPBC leaning
Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream
Tara Armstrong
 I CPBC likely
Kelowna-Mission
Gavin Dew
 C CPBC safe
Kootenay Central
Brittny Anderson
 N Toss up
Kootenay-Monashee
Steve Morissette
 N NDP leaning
Kootenay-Rockies
Pete Davis
 C CPBC safe
Ladysmith-Oceanside
Stephanie Higginson
 N NDP leaning
Langford-Highlands
Ravi Parmar
 N NDP likely
Langley-Abbotsford
Harman Bhangu
 C CPBC safe
Langley-Walnut Grove
Misty Van Popta
 C CPBC likely
Langley-Willowbrook
Jody Toor
 C CPBC likely
Maple Ridge East
Lawrence Mok
 C CPBC leaning
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Lisa Beare
 N Toss up
Mid Island-Pacific Rim
Josie Osborne
 N Toss up
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island
Sheila Malcolmson
 N NDP likely
Nanaimo-Lantzville
George Anderson
 N NDP leaning
Nechako Lakes
John Rustad
 C CPBC safe
New Westminster-Coquitlam
Jennifer Whiteside
 N NDP safe
North Coast-Haida Gwaii
Tamara Davidson
 N NDP safe
North Island
Anna Kindy
 C CPBC leaning
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Bowinn Ma
 N NDP safe
North Vancouver-Seymour
Susie Chant
 N NDP likely
Oak Bay-Gordon Head
Diana Gibson
 N NDP safe
Peace River North
Jordan Kealy
 I CPBC safe
Peace River South
Larry Neufeld
 C CPBC safe
Penticton-Summerland
Amelia Boultbee
 N CPBC leaning
Port Coquitlam
Mike Farnworth
 N NDP leaning
Port Moody-Burquitlam
Rick Glumac
 N NDP leaning
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
Randene Neill
 N NDP leaning
Prince George-Mackenzie
Kiel Giddens
 C CPBC safe
Prince George-North Cariboo
Sheldon Clare
 C CPBC safe
Prince George-Valemount
Rosalyn Bird
 I CPBC safe
Richmond Centre
Hon Chan
 I CPBC safe
Richmond-Bridgeport
Teresa Wat
 I CPBC safe
Richmond-Queensborough
Steve Kooner
 C CPBC likely
Richmond-Steveston
Kelly Greene
 N CPBC leaning
Saanich North and the Islands
Rob Botterell
 G GRN likely
Saanich South
Lana Popham
 N NDP likely
Salmon Arm-Shuswap
David L. Williams
 C CPBC safe
Skeena
Claire Rattée
 C CPBC likely
Surrey City Centre
Amna Shah
 N CPBC leaning
Surrey North
Mandeep Dhaliwal
 C CPBC likely
Surrey South
Brent Chapman
 O CPBC likely
Surrey-Cloverdale
Elenore Sturko
 CE CPBC likely
Surrey-Fleetwood
Jagrup Brar
 N Toss up
Surrey-Guildford
Garry Begg
 N CPBC leaning
Surrey-Newton
Jessie Sunner
 N Toss up
Surrey-Panorama
Bryan Tepper
 C CPBC leaning
Surrey-Serpentine River
Linda Hepner
 C CPBC leaning
Surrey-White Rock
Trevor Halford
 C CPBC likely
Vancouver-Fraserview
George Chow
 N NDP likely
Vancouver-Hastings
Niki Sharma
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Kensington
Mable Elmore
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Langara
Sunita Dhir
 N CPBC leaning
Vancouver-Little Mountain
Christine Boyle
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Point Grey
David Eby
 N NDP likely
Vancouver-Quilchena
Dallas Brodie
 O CPBC likely
Vancouver-Renfrew
Adrian Dix
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-South Granville
Brenda Bailey
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Strathcona
Joan Phillip
 NDP safe
Vancouver-West End
Spencer Chandra Herbert
 N NDP safe
Vancouver-Yaletown
Terry Yung
 N Toss up
Vernon-Lumby
Harwinder Sandhu
 N Toss up
Victoria-Beacon Hill
Grace Lore
 N NDP leaning
Victoria-Swan Lake
Nina Krieger
 N NDP safe
West Kelowna-Peachland
Macklin McCall
 C CPBC safe
West Vancouver-Capilano
Lynne Block
 C CPBC safe
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
Jeremy Valeriote
 G Toss up