logo
logo
British columbia

Welcome to 338Canada British Columbia!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Projection | British Columbia


Latest update: September 3, 2024

Popular vote projection 44% ± 4%▲ CPBC 44% ± 4%▲ NDP 11% ± 2%▲ BCG 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 47 seats for a majority 49▼ [37-60] NDP 43▲ [34-53] CPBC 1 [1-2] BCG 338Canada British Columbia | September 3, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 64%▼ NDP 31%▲ CPBC 5%▲ Tie <1% BCG Odds of winning | September 3, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 64%▼ NDP maj. 31%▲ CPBC maj. 5%▲ Tie <1% CPBC min. <1% NDP min. Odds of outcome | September 3, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

British Columbia | Popular vote projection

BCU CPBC NDP BCG BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 44% ± 4% NDP 44% ± 4% BCG 11% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 Election 2024 September 3, 2024 2023-07-14 NDP 45% BCU 30% BCG 14% CPBC 9% 2023-07-14 2023-09-26 NDP 46% BCU 22% CPBC 18% BCG 13% 2023-09-26 2023-10-05 NDP 46% CPBC 21% BCU 20% BCG 12% 2023-10-05 2023-11-30 NDP 44% CPBC 22% BCU 20% BCG 12% 2023-11-30 2023-12-30 NDP 44% CPBC 21% BCU 20% BCG 12% 2023-12-30 2023-12-31 NDP 44% CPBC 22% BCU 20% BCG 12% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 46% CPBC 22% BCU 18% BCG 11% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 42% CPBC 25% BCU 19% BCG 11% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 41% CPBC 30% BCU 16% BCG 10% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 39% CPBC 35% BCU 13% BCG 10% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 41% CPBC 33% BCU 14% BCG 10% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 41% CPBC 33% BCU 12% BCG 11% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 40% CPBC 36% BCG 11% BCU 11% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 40% CPBC 37% BCG 11% BCU 10% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 40% CPBC 38% BCG 10% BCU 10% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 44% NDP 44% BCG 11% BCU 0% 2024-09-03

British Columbia | Seat projection

BCU 0 [0-0] CPBC 43 [34-53] NDP 49 [37-60] BCG 1 [1-2] Seat projection 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG Majority: 47 seats September 3, 2024 2023-07-14 NDP 60 BCU 24 BCG 3 CPBC 0 2023-07-14 2023-09-26 NDP 71 BCU 11 BCG 3 CPBC 2 2023-09-26 2023-10-05 NDP 77 BCU 5 CPBC 3 BCG 2 2023-10-05 2023-11-30 NDP 78 BCU 8 CPBC 5 BCG 2 2023-11-30 2023-12-30 NDP 78 BCU 8 CPBC 5 BCG 2 2023-12-30 2023-12-31 NDP 78 BCU 8 CPBC 5 BCG 2 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 81 CPBC 6 BCU 4 BCG 2 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 68 CPBC 19 BCU 4 BCG 2 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 62 CPBC 28 BCG 2 BCU 1 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 53 CPBC 38 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 58 CPBC 33 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 58 CPBC 33 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 54 CPBC 37 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 53 CPBC 39 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 53 CPBC 39 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 49 CPBC 43 BCG 1 BCU 0 2024-09-03

British Columbia | Odds of winning the most seats

CPBC 31% NDP 64% Tie 5% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG Tie September 3, 2024 2023-07-14 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCU <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2023-07-14 2023-09-26 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2023-09-26 2023-10-05 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2023-10-05 2023-11-30 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2023-11-30 2023-12-30 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2023-12-30 2023-12-31 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% CPBC <1% BCU <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% Tie <1% CPBC <1% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 78% CPBC 19% Tie 3% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 97% CPBC 2% Tie 1% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 98% CPBC 1% Tie 1% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 86% CPBC 12% Tie 2% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 79% CPBC 18% Tie 3% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 79% CPBC 18% Tie 4% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 64% CPBC 31% Tie 5% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-09-03

British Columbia | Odds of election outcome

CPBC majority 31% CPBC minority <1% NDP majority 64% NDP minority <1% Tie 5% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 Election 2024 CPBC majority CPBC minority NDP majority NDP minority Tie September 3, 2024 2023-07-14 NDP majority >99% NDP minority <1% Tie <1% CPBC minority <1% CPBC majority <1% 2023-07-14 2023-09-26 NDP majority >99% Tie <1% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% CPBC majority <1% 2023-09-26 2023-10-05 NDP majority >99% Tie <1% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% CPBC majority <1% 2023-10-05 2023-11-30 NDP majority >99% Tie <1% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% CPBC majority <1% 2023-11-30 2023-12-30 NDP majority >99% Tie <1% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% CPBC majority <1% 2023-12-30 2023-12-31 NDP majority >99% Tie <1% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% CPBC majority <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP majority >99% Tie <1% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% CPBC majority <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP majority >99% Tie <1% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% CPBC majority <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP majority >99% NDP minority <1% Tie <1% CPBC majority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP majority 77% CPBC majority 18% Tie 3% NDP minority 1% CPBC minority 1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP majority 96% CPBC majority 2% Tie 1% NDP minority 1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP majority 97% CPBC majority 1% NDP minority 1% Tie 1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP majority 83% CPBC majority 10% NDP minority 3% CPBC minority 2% Tie 2% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP majority 78% CPBC majority 17% Tie 3% NDP minority 1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP majority 78% CPBC majority 17% Tie 4% NDP minority <1% CPBC minority <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP majority 64% CPBC majority 31% Tie 5% CPBC minority <1% NDP minority <1% 2024-09-03