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Canada

Welcome to 338Canada!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


212 CPC 74 LPC 38 BQ 17 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats ON 91 26 4 1 QC 38 25 14 1 BC 33 6 3 1 AB 36 1 MB 7 4 3 SK 13 1 NS 6 5 NB 6 4 NL 4 3 PEI 3 1 YK NWT NU 338Canada federal projections Click on map to see projection details Updated on July 21, 2024

ON QC BC AB MB SK NS NB NL PEI YK NWT NU 338Canada provincial projections Click on a province to see projection details 86 23 12 2 1 61 29 19 10 6 54 37 2 59 28 36 20 1 38 23 41 8 5 1 24 22 3 18 17 3 2

Latest 338Canada updates


Click on any chart to access projection details

Canada (federal)

Updated July 21, 2024
CPC 42% ± 4% LPC 24% ± 3% NDP 17% ± 3% BQ 8% ± 1% GPC 4% ± 2% Projections | Polls | Districts

British Columbia

Updated July 12, 2024
NDP 40% ± 4%▼ BCC 36% ± 5%▲ BCG 11% ± 2% BCU 11% ± 3%▼ Projections | Polls | Districts

Alberta

Updated July 7, 2024
UCP 54% ± 5%▲ NDP 41% ± 5%▼ ABP 2% ± 1% GPA 1% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Ontario

Updated June 30, 2024
PCPO 40% ± 4%▲ OLP 26% ± 3%▼ NDP 21% ± 3% GPO 7% ± 2% Projections | Polls | Districts

Manitoba

Updated June 19, 2024
NDP 48% ± 4%▲ PC 41% ± 4%▼ LIB 9% ± 2%▼ GRN 1% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

Quebec

Updated June 17, 2024
PQ 32% ± 3% CAQ 24% ± 3% LIB 17% ± 3% QS 14% ± 2%▲ CPQ 11% ± 2% Projections | Polls | Districts

Newfoundland & Labrador

Updated May 27, 2024
LIB 40% ± 6% PC 40% ± 6%▲ NDP 16% ± 4% Projections | Polls | Districts

Saskatchewan

Updated March 16, 2024
SKP 49% ± 5%▲ NDP 40% ± 5%▼ SUP 5% ± 2% BUF 2% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

New Brunswick

Updated March 9, 2024
LIB 40% ± 5%▲ PC 36% ± 5% GRN 17% ± 4%▲ PANB 4% ± 1%▼ NDP 4% ± 1%▲ Projections | Polls | Districts

Nova Scotia

Updated March 9, 2024
PC 48% ± 3%▲ LIB 25% ± 3% NDP 23% ± 3% GRN 3% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Election calendar

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2027