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Canada

Welcome to 338Canada!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

Enjoy the website!






338Canada Federal Projection


Latest update: March 19, 2023
(Outside of campaigns, the federal projections are updated every Sunday.)
Popular vote projection 34% ± 4% CPC 31% ± 4% LPC 20% ± 3% NDP 8% ± 1% BQ 4% ± 1% GPC 3% ± 1% PPC 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 19, 2023
338Canada seat projection | 170 seats for a majority 140 [114-174] CPC 133 [96-155] LPC 37 [32-43] BQ 26 [13-45] NDP 2 [2-3] GPC 338Canada seat projection | March 19, 2023

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 65% CPC 34% LPC 1% Tie <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 19, 2023
50% 100% 338Canada Odds of outcome 57% CPC min. 34% LPC min. 8% CPC maj. 1% Tie Odds of outcome | March 19, 2023


Projection of potential coalitions


CPC+BQ 177 LPC+BQ 170 CPC+NDP 166 L+N+G 161 LPC+NDP 159 LPC+GPC 135 338Canada | March 19, 2023Seat projections of potential coalitions* 170 seats
*Not all party combinations are shown on the chart.
50% 100% 62% CPC+BQ 46% CPC+NDP 39% LPC+BQ 23% LPC+NDP 8% CPC 5% L+N+G <1% LPC+GPC <1% LPC 338Canada | March 19, 2023Odds of reaching 170 seats
*These are the probabilities of reaching 170 seats in a coalition by necessity. For example: the probability of CPC+BQ is the one where the CPC needs the BQ to reach this threshold.



338Canada popular vote projection

LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC LPC 31% ± 4% CPC 34% ± 4% NDP 20% ± 3% GPC 4% ± 1% BQ 8% ± 1% PPC 3% ± 1% Popular vote projection % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-03-01 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01

338Canada seat projection

LPC 133 [96-155] CPC 140 [114-174] NDP 26 [13-45] GPC 2 [2-3] BQ 37 [32-43] Seat projection 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-03-01 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ Majority: 170 seats

338Canada odds of winning the most seats

LPC 34% CPC 65% Tie 1% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-03-01 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 LPC CPC Tie

338Canada odds of election outcome

LPC majority <1% LPC minority 34% CPC majority 8% CPC minority 57% Tie 1% 338Canada Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-03-01 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 LPC majority LPC minority CPC majority CPC minority Tie