🍁338Canada Federal Projections
338Canada provides statistical projections of federal and provincial elections in Canada, combining opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data to estimate both popular vote and seat outcomes.
This page shows the current state of federal's political landscape, including recent polling, projected vote shares, and likely seat distributions if an election were held today.
Outside of campaigns, federal projections are updated every Sunday.
338Canada federal projection
Latest update: March 15, 2026
Methodology note.
Projections are calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. See methodology statement here.
Methodology note.
Seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. Brackets indicate the current range of outcomes. Values near the mean are more likely than extremes.
Methodology note.
The odds of winning and of various outcomes are those that would apply if a general election were held today.
They are calculated using the 338Canada Monte Carlo–type model, which runs thousands of simulated elections based on projected vote shares by riding, past results, and demographic data.